While I’ll never
go so far as to say that fantasy leagues are won and lost on
draft day, it is certainly the single most important day of the season.
Making savvy roster moves during the regular season and picking the
correct starters each week are also big factors, but if you build a
solid foundation on draft day, your chances of winning are much greater
and managing your team will not take as much work.
The Basics (Cheat
Sheets)
The first step of
your draft preparation should be to have a cheat sheet (a set of
rankings) that is based on a scoring system similar to the one used by
your league. The cheat sheet that you use should include the projected
fantasy points for each player. As a member of this site, you have
access to our basic cheat sheets and our customized ranking tool, so
this step should not be too difficult.
Look over your
cheat sheet, noting the plateaus and “drop-offs” in the players’ fantasy
points at each position. For example, if you look at the projected
points for running backs on our basic cheat sheet for overall
performance, you’ll see that there is a significant drop-off
after the top three running backs and after the top five tight ends. By
noting the drop-offs and the plateaus, you’ll know where you can get the
best value picks during the draft.
Supply and Demand
If you somehow
knew who your fellow owners wanted to draft and when they wanted to
draft them, you certainly would have a decided advantage when making
your own selections. I cannot make any suggestions on how to improve
your mind-reading skills, but a good way to project who will go
where/when is to review the results of drafts that have already taken
place, such as the mock drafts that we post on this site.
Based on the
average of a sample of recent drafts, WR Anquan Boldin is being
taken in the third round. We currently have Boldin rated as a
second-round pick, but if you know that he will likely be available in
the third, you can use your second selection on another player of
similar value who won’t be available in the third round.
The majority of
drafts follow a similar pattern: 1) the top 25 running backs will go
quickly (first four rounds); 2) a few quarterbacks will go early but
starters will still be available in the early middle rounds; 3) the top
20 receivers will go between the end of the first round and the end of
the fifth; 4) the very best tight ends will go between rounds 3-5, but
the majority will be taken between rounds 6-12; and 5) hardly any
kickers or team defenses will be taken before the start of the second
half of the draft, with most lasting until the late rounds.
As you can see,
the demand for running backs is high. This is not because they are the
biggest point producers (quarterbacks usually are). It’s because of the
short supply. There are just 32 starting tailbacks available (one for
each NFL team), as opposed to at least 64 wide receivers (some NFL teams
start three). Of those starting RBs, more than one-third of them will
not be featured backs who carry most of the load. In other words, 10-15
of them will have time-sharing issues. That leaves us with roughly 20
reliable running backs. At the same time, most fantasy leagues start
two running backs, so even in a ten-team league (a total of 20 starting
RBs needed) consistently productive runners will be in short supply.
How many members
are in your league and how many players will start at each position will
influence demand. For example, if you are in a 14-team league, finding
a solid starting tight end or a No. 2 RB will be more difficult than
finding one in a 10-team league because of the depth of the field.
There are also a number of lineup variations that can influence the
demand. For instance, the very best tight ends can go as high as the
third round in leagues that use them as starters, but if TEs are grouped
with receivers as one position, the demand for a starting tight end will
be nil by definition. Under those conditions, TEs will have
significantly less value because they generally generate fewer fantasy
points than receivers, and only 6-12 tight ends will actually be
drafted. Another common lineup variation is having three starting
receivers, which will drive up the demand for receivers whether they are
grouped with tight ends or not.
It is also a good
idea to consider your opponents’ tendencies. If you’ve been in a league
for some time, you should know by now which members hoard running backs,
which owners always pick their favorite players, which members do not
have a clue, and so on. You can take this one step further during the
draft by tracking which players the other owners have selected. By
knowing who has filled what spots, you can better predict which players
will be taken before you pick again.
Relative Value
Another important
factor to consider when drafting is each player’s relative value. In
other words, how many points a player produces is not as important as
how much he differs from the rest of the field at his position. For
example, we project QB Tom Brady to produce 287 fantasy points
this season, but in leagues that require a starting tight end,
Antonio Gates (160 projected points) is more valuable. Based on our
projections, Brady will score between 0 and 2 points more per game than
the other starting quarterbacks that you could draft. Gates, on the
other hand, will score between 1 and 5 more points per game than the any
other starting tight end. Another way to think about it is: it is much
better to have the combination of Gates and a mid-level QB, such as
Eli Manning (for a combined total of 423 points), than Brady and a
mid-level TE, such as Jason Witten (for a combined total of 392
points).
Maximizing the
Value of Your Picks
I do not believe
in going into a draft with a strategy that is “set in stone.” Instead,
I attempt to get the maximum value with each pick.
Before making a
selection, you have to think ahead and consider who will be available
when you pick again. Consider your alternatives and then decide what
scenario will work best for you. Here’s an example. It’s your pick
early in the second round, and you first-rounder was RB Ronnie Brown.
It’s going to be a while before you pick again (late third round). At
this point, you basically have two options: 1) take a No. 2 back (a
Brian Westbrook or a Willis McGahee), or 2) take a No.1
receiver (a Chad Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald). With
option No.1, you should be able to get a receiver such as Chris
Chambers, Hines Ward, or Santana Moss late in the
third. With option No. 2, you can expect 17-18 running backs to be
gone, leaving you to pick from the likes of Jamal Lewis,
DeShaun Foster, and Kevin Jones in the third round.
So, which option
is better? Well, based on the projected points for these players,
option No. 1 is slightly better. The difference between having a
Westbrook and a Lewis at RB is 2.0 points per game. The difference
between having a Johnson and a Chambers at WR is 1.5 points per game. I
also like option No. 1 better because you have flexibility with your
third pick – you could go with a third RB, a receiver, or maybe even
Gates at TE. Option No. 2 essentially forces you to take an RB in the
third round.
Rules of Thumb
Unless your league
is unconventional, you’ll be looking to land at least two running backs
in the first three rounds. Because of the supply-and-demand issues
mentioned above, it will be difficult to find a quality No. 2 RB after
the fourth round and a quality No. 3 after the seventh.
You can usually
grab a top-10 receiver in the third round or possibly the start of the
fourth. Quite often, there are a lot of different opinions on the
second-tier receivers (post top-10), and you should be able to land a
quality No. 2 wideout between the fourth and eighth rounds. The same
can be said for quarterbacks, as you frequently can wait until as late
as the seventh round and still nab a quality starter.
I usually
recommend getting one of the top tight ends (there’s a big drop-off
after No. 5) in the early rounds (between 3-6), but I have somewhat
strayed away from that strategy this season because the field appears to
be deeper than usual; there are several youngsters with great potential
(Heath Miller, Ben Watson, Kellen Winslow, and
rookie Vernon Davis). I would be willing to roll the dice with
those guys, especially if I thought that I could get one as a starter
and one as a backup.
In the mid to late
rounds of your draft, you should fill out your roster with a combination
of reliable backups and promising sleeper picks. The middle rounds are
also the time that you start considering kickers, team
defenses/individual defensive players. I usually pass on the top 2-3
kickers and defenses because they often seem to fail to live up to their
draft slot, but I have been known to take a Rackers-like kicker or a
Bears-like defense on occasion. It all depends on what type of talent
is left on the board. I am usually able to wait and still fill those
positions with solid options in the last few rounds.
I often chose just
one kicker and one defense, thinking that I should be able to grab a
quality free agent during the regular season. I also rarely fret over
bye weeks during the draft, as I am much more concerned with getting the
best value. However, it is not a bad idea to check for bye-week issues
while you still have a few picks left.
AUCTION
STRATEGY
While conventional drafts are enjoyable, you can’t beat the excitement
of auctions. There is strategy involved at every moment, as opposed to
making a pick and waiting 15 minutes until it is your turn again. The
other exciting aspect of auctions is that you have a shot at any player
on the draft board. In conventional drafts, you know there is
absolutely no chance that you will have both Larry Johnson and
Shaun Alexander on your team, but that is a possibility in an
auction. The downside to auctions is that they require more work before
and during the draft, but for my money, it is worth it.
Before the auction, I usually make a budget to use as a guideline. The
breakdown usually looks something like this: quarterbacks (15%), running
backs (50%), wide receivers (25%), tight ends (5%), team defenses (4%),
and kickers (1%). This will vary, depending on your league’s scoring
system and lineup. These percentages are based on an
overall-performance league with a standard lineup (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1
TE, 1 D, and 1 K). You can easily adjust for some lineup variations,
such as no tights and three receivers. In this case, tight ends will
account for zero percent and receivers 30 percent of the total dollars.
It
is also helpful to look at previous year’s prices when determining a
budget and a spending plan. You may be in a league that has
unconventional spending patterns. For example, if you know from
previous years that the average of the top ten running backs always cost
$40-$50 (roughly $20 higher than our cheat sheet values), you must
adjust your budget to compensate.
Many
are proponents of spending whatever it takes to come away with top stars
such as L.J. and Alexander. I am not a member of that group. It has
been my experience that these players usually go for much more than they
are worth, leaving you little to work with to fill out the rest of your
roster. I like a more balanced and flexible approach, having a goal of
buying better-than-average players at each position, as opposed to
getting into bidding wars for specific players.
In
12-team league, a “better-than-average” starter would be the sixth
ranked player at each position and the 18th ranked player running back
and receiver (you need two starters at those spots). Using our current
dollar values, which are based on a total payroll of $1,200 or $100 per
team in a 12-team league, you could buy the sixth-ranked player at each
position and the 18th for your No. 2 back and receiver, and
come away with this team: Marc Bulger ($7), Rudi Johnson
($23), DeShaun Foster ($15), Terrell Owens ($14), Joey
Galloway ($10), Jason Witten ($4), John Kasay ($1),
and the Baltimore Ravens’ defense ($4). This starting lineup
should win more games than it looses. The total cost would be $78,
leaving you with $22 for your reserves.
This
not to say that you must always buy middle-of-the-road players. For
example, based on our fantasy point projections and dollar values,
instead of buying the running back tandem of Johnson and Foster, you
could go with the combination of Tiki Barber ($28) and Tatum
Bell ($11). This first pair is projected to yield 412 fantasy
points for a total of $38, while Barber and Bell are projected to yield
414 points for a total of $39.
The
real key to success is buying players for less than their real value, so
that you can splurge at other spots. So, in the case of Bell, who is
underrated in my opinion, you might be able to buy him for $8 and use
the savings to purchase an even better back than Barber, such as
LaDainian Tomlinson.
Super-Saver Tips
1)
Be
patient early in the auction –
There are always times midway through the auction when a number of teams
have little to spend and there are plenty of good players available.
Make sure that you are one of the teams that have plenty of funds when
these bargains go on the block.
2)
Bring your Poker face –
Do
not tip your hand as to whom you are interested in. If you do, fellow
owners will drive up the prices of the players you covet. In fact, you
want to achieve the opposite effect. When a player first comes out,
throw out a few low bids to make everyone feel that you are interested.
You can drive up the price that way, but make sure that you know when to
get out.
3)
Keep
track of who has drafted whom and how much money each team has left
– By doing this, you will be able to adjust your bidding so that
you are not overpaying, and you will be able to target the players that
you favor the most. For example, you know that three teams, including
yours, still need a starting quarterback. You also know that the other
two teams have less money than you, and there are 3-4 signal callers
still available that you like. With this knowledge, you should feel
pretty confident that you’ll be able to land a QB that you like without
overpaying, allowing you to splurge at some other spot.
4)
Do
not buy second-tier players or backups early in the auction unless they
are dirt cheap
– You usually want to buy your backups later in the auction when
the players cost just a dollar or two, so do not fill your roster with
players that won’t be starting for you just because they are “great
buys.” For instance, it’s early in the draft, you have no running
backs, and Chris Brown (projected at $9) is being bid on at $5.
That may be a good price for him, but he’s not an ideal starter.
Brown’s low price does not change the fact that he’s not a top-20
running back, and you do not want to be starting him unless you have
some big stars (L.J. and Alexander) at other spots to pick up the
slack.
5)
When
nominating players for bidding early in the auction, choose players who
will go for inflated prices
– Well-known quarterbacks, such as Tom Brady and Drew
Bledsoe, are usually good for eating up someone’s payroll. Big-name
rookies like Reggie Bush and Vernon Davis will have the
same effect. Backup types, such as the aforementioned Brown and WR
Terry Glenn, will also go for more than they are worth if they are
nominated early. Kickers and defenses are good for this purpose, too.
Yes, we would all like Neil Rackers as our kicker, but why pay $8
for him early in the auction, when you could get Josh Brown later
for $1. As time passes, other teams find themselves on a tight budget,
while you will have plenty of funds to purchase a well-rounded team.
6)
When
nominating players for bidding, never choose someone you would not want
as a backup –
In
other words, don’t outsmart yourself and get stuck with QB Rex
Grossman, even if it is only for a $1.
