Week 13

Spotting sleeper players in fantasy football can be tricky.

If you whiff on too many, your team can suffer. But, if you hit on a few, it can give your team a huge boost.

Owners who drafted Cleveland wide receiver Braylon Edwards in the middle rounds of their preseason draft have been smiling ear to ear all season. On other hand, owners who drafted Atlanta running back Jerious Norwood as their No. 2 running back probably have been scrambling all season, trying to find a starter-worthy running back to replace him.

The best strategy is to only draft sleepers as bench players. So, if they don’t turn out to be a solid player, you’re only out a bench player and not a starter.

Let’s take a look at a few ways to spot potential sleeper players, with some players who have held true to the strategy (boom) and players who have not (bust). 

THIRD-YEAR WIDE RECEIVERS

The leap from college to the NFL often is the most difficult for wide receivers. The NFL is faster and has more complicated offenses, which creates an adjustment period for receivers.

History has shown that receivers often have their breakout season during their third year.

Last year’s third-year receivers who saw a significant jump in their numbers include the following: Buffalo’s Lee Evans, Detroit’s Roy Williams, the New York Jets’ Jerricho Cotchery and Chicago’s Bernard Berrian.

Boom: Edwards, Cleveland; Roddy White, Atlanta.

Bust: Mark Clayton, Baltimore; Vincent Jackson, San Diego; Reggie Brown, Philadelphia; Matt Jones, Jacksonville. 

LATE-SEASON SURGE

Players who become a bigger part of the offense in the second half or the last few games of the previous season are candidates to have solid seasons.

Boom: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas; Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver.

Bust: J.P. Losman, QB, Buffalo; Jay Cutler, QB, Denver; Devery Henderson, WR, New Orleans. 

COACHING CHANGE

If a new coach brings with him an offense that’s expected to lean more on the pass or run or has a history of making certain positions successful, players under those new coaches potentially could put up numbers better than they previously have.

Boom: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh; Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami; Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh.

Bust: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego. 

BIGGER ROLE

Players switching teams, retiring or getting to the end of their careers gives new opportunities to players.

Boom: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston; Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants (when healthy); Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia.

Bust: Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta; Tatum Bell, RB, Detroit; Deion Branch, WR, Seattle; Brandon Jones, WR, Tennessee. 

HOT READ

Adrian Peterson, RB, Chicago: With starter Cedric Benson out for the season, Peterson will get his shot as the Bears’ featured running back. Peterson is a better receiver than Benson and comparable as a runner. Pick up Peterson if he’s available in your league, but temper your expectations. The Bears don’t face a run defense ranked worse than 13th through Week 16. 

BROKEN PLAY(ER)

Javon Walker, WR, Denver: Walker returned to the lineup but not the stat sheet last week. He played very little and didn’t catch a single pass in his first game back since sustaining a knee injury in Week 3. Until he proves he’s healthy enough to contribute, keep him on your bench. 

OFF THE BENCH

Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland: Fargas has received at least 22 carries the last four weeks since taking over as the Raiders’ featured running back. If that streak continues, he should have a good chance to record his third 100-yard rushing game in his last five games against Denver’s 29th-ranked run defense. 

SAFE BET

Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati: Johnson had three touchdowns last week, his first scores since Week 2, so you have to start him, right? Not this week. The Bengals face Pittsburgh and its top-ranked pass defense. Also, Johnson recently has struggled against the Steelers, averaging just 42 yards per game without a touchdown in the last four meetings. Don’t expect any TD celebrations from Johnson this week. 

EXTRA POINT

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