When looking at matchups, fantasy
football owners should dig deeper than just how many yards per game an
opponent allows through the air or on the ground.
Owners should base matchups on how
many fantasy points an opponent gives up to that particular position.
Basing a matchup on just how many
yards a team gives up can be misleading.
For example, the New York Giants
allow the 20th most passing yards per game in the NFL. However, throw in
the 11 passing touchdowns, the 43 rushing yards and the one rushing TD
that they have allowed to quarterbacks and they allow the ninth most
fantasy points per game (one point per 20 passing yards; four points per
passing TD; one point per 10 rushing yards; six points per rushing TD).
For running backs, when
considering how many touchdowns (rushing and receiving), receiving yards
and possibly receptions (if your league allows points for receptions) in
addition to rushing yards allowed, it vastly can change how a matchup
appears. If an owner analyzes just rushing yards allowed, Detroit ranks
14th for most yards allowed. Toss in the six rushing TDs, 567 receiving
yards and three receiving scores the Lions have given up to running
backs and they leap to the worst fantasy defense against running backs.
Looking at just yards allowed can be
the most deceiving for wide receivers and tight ends, because some teams
are weak defending one, but not necessarily the other position. For
example, Denver has the No. 2 pass defense in the league based on yards
allowed per game. However, the Broncos’ pass defense has been weak
against tight ends, allowing the second most fantasy points per game to
tight ends (373 yards, six TDs).
Where can you find this type
information when you’re deciding whom to start and sit? Go
www.FFToday.com and click on “Fantasy Stats” under the “Road To Gameday”
menu on the right side of the homepage. The stats are updated every
Tuesday.
Of course, the rankings on this
site, FFExperts.com, already consider those stats. We actually go one
step further by weighting each defense based on whom they have played.
For example, a team that allows 250 passing yards and two passing TDs
per game to bad offenses (like the Raiders and the Falcons) will be
weighted lower for pass defense than a team that allows 250 passing
yards and two passing TDs per game to good offenses (like the Patriots
and the Colts).
HOT READ
Chris Henry, WR, Cincinnati:
The NFL is allowing Henry to practice with the Bengals before his
suspension is done. That means he should be ready to go for Week 10 when
his suspension is lifted. Last year, he had more touchdowns (nine) than
teammate Chad Johnson (seven) in three fewer games. If he’s available in
your league, pick him up now rather than waiting until Week 10 and
risking another owner nabbing him.
BROKEN PLAY(ER)
Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle:
He has gone from fantasy player of the year in 2005 to possibly fantasy
stinker of the year. Alexander hasn’t scored since Week 2, and last
week’s 47-yard rushing effort against pathetic St. Louis was his best
total since Week 3. Forget his fantasy stud days and consider benching
him if you have other solid options.
OFF THE BENCH
Brian Griese, QB, Chicago:
The Bears host road-challenged Detroit, which already has allowed three
300-yard passing games and at least two touchdowns through the air in
five of six weeks. Griese threw for 286 yards with two touchdowns (and
three interceptions) at Detroit earlier this season. The Lions have
allowed 314 passing yards per game and eight touchdowns in three road
games.
SAFE BET
Indianapolis running back Kenton
Keith will continue to receive a good share of the Colts’ carries.
Last week, Keith got just one fewer rushing attempts than starter
Joseph Addai, whose carries likely were limited due to it being his
first game since sustaining an injury. Coach Tony Dungy has said that he
would like to continue giving Keith carries, so expect him to get about
30 percent – or about 10 carries – a game.
EXTRA POINT
Tennessee’s Rob Bironas may
be the hottest kicker pickup in fantasy history after recording an
NFL-record eight field goals last week. He probably wasn’t started in
most leagues, proving that it’s nearly impossible to predict
consistently how kickers will fair.
