Just like the stock market, smart
fantasy football owners sell high and buy low.
The tricky part is knowing when
players have reached their highest value and when they have reached
their lowest.
One of the best ways to tell if a
player has reached his highest value or lowest value is to study the
opponents that they recently have played and the opponents they will
play in upcoming weeks. If a player is hot, but has torn up weak
defenses, and faces a tougher upcoming schedule, that player may be a
great sell-high candidate. If a player is struggling to produce numbers,
but has faced a tough schedule, and has an easy schedule ahead, that
player could be a solid buy-low candidate.
With just two weeks of the dreaded
bye weeks left, fantasy owners should be looking to trade away their
depth to strengthen their starting lineups for the stretch run.
Let’s take a look at the
not-so-obvious second-half studs and duds that can help you with
trades.
STUDS
LenDale White, RB, Tennessee:
The second-year running back’s stock is rising after rushing for more
than 100 yards the last two weeks – including a career-high 139 last
week against Oakland – but it will be through the roof by season’s end.
White’s running behind a stellar offensive line and will be the focal
point of the offense with quarterback Vince Young struggling to lead the
passing offense. Oh yeah, the Titans face a cupcake schedule the rest of
the way. They take on rushing defenses with an average ranking of 20th
against running backs (fantasy points allowed) through Week 16 (when
most fantasy seasons end), including Denver (27th), Cincinnati (23rd)
and the N.Y. Jets (30th) in championship-game week (Week 16).
Others:
Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit; Eli Manning, QB, N.Y. Giants; Edgerrin James, RB,
Arizona; Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo; Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City;
Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans; Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo; Tony Gonzalez, TE,
Kansas City.
Sleepers:
Jay Cutler, QB, Denver; LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland; Reggie Brown, WR,
Philadelphia; Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay.
DUDS
Laurence Maroney, RB, New
England: Even if – and that’s a big if –
Maroney can stay healthy, he will have to find yards against tough run
defenses in four of the next five weeks. New England takes on
Indianapolis (11th least fantasy points allowed to running backs),
Philadelphia (sixth), Baltimore (second) and Pittsburgh (first) in the
next five weeks. With Tom Brady and his talented group of receivers, the
Patriots can win without utilizing the run.
Others:
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans; Thomas Jones, RB, N.Y. Jets; DeShaun Foster
and DeAngelo Williams, RBs, Carolina; Clinton Portis, RB, Washington;
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit; Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago; Derrick Mason, WR,
Baltimore; Andre Johnson, WR, Houston.
HOT READ
Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay:
The Packers are hoping the third time is the charm in their backfield.
Brandon Jackson started the season as the team’s starting running back
before being replaced by DeShawn Wynn. Now, it’s Grant’s turn. Keep in
mind that his 104-yard performance on Monday night was against the
Broncos’ defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 166 rushing yards per
game. He’s worth picking up because he’s a starting running back, but
don’t be surprised if it’s Strike 3 for Green Bay.
BROKEN PLAY(ER)
Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati:
If face time on national TV was a fantasy stat, Johnson would be the
Bengals’ No. 1 receiver. On to reality – he’s Cincinnati’s No. 2
receiver behind T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Ocho-Cinco has fewer receptions (58
to 44) and six fewer touchdowns (nine to three) than Houshmandzadeh.
Trade him to an owner who’s a sucker for big names or temper your
expectations to Johnson being a low-end No. 1 or No. 2 receiver.
OFF THE BENCH
Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit:
Yes, I listed him as a dud for the second half of the season, but that’s
because the Lions’ schedule is difficult against the run and easy
against the pass the remainder of the season, starting after their game
against Denver this week. If the pathetic Packers’ rush offense can gain
more than 100 yards on the ground against the Broncos, then Jones should
be able to do the same. Jones is coming off a 100-yard effort and has
scored in four of his last five games.
SAFE BET
The game behind dubbed Super Bowl
XLII½ -- New England at Indianapolis – should produce plenty of fantasy
points. The two teams combined for 72 points in last year’s AFC title
game meeting. If you’ve got a Patriot or a Colt, get them in your
starting lineup.
EXTRA POINT
If you have a quarterback facing
Minnesota, you should be smiling ear to ear. Since the Vikings’ run
defense (74.4 yards per game allowed, third in the NFL) is so good,
teams focus on beating them through the air where they rank last in the
NFL (288.3 yards per game). The Minnesota defense has allowed at least
333 passing yards in three of its last four games.
