Rule 1 of fantasy football drafts: Don’t
select kickers and defenses until the late rounds.
Kickers and defenses are the most difficult to predict
each year because their performances often vary greatly year to year.
The last time a kicker repeated as the kicker scoring champion was New
England’s John Smith in 1980. The last time a defense allowed the fewest
points in consecutive seasons was the 1991 and 1992 New Orleans Saints.
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additional draft tips.
BREAKTHROUGH
Joe Nedney, San Francisco:
The strong-legged kicker made his last 11 attempts last season and will
get more opportunities to score with San Francisco’s offense likely to
improve.
New England: With the
addition of linebacker Adalius Thomas, the Patriots will challenge
Chicago and Baltimore as fantasy’s top defense.
OVERRATED
Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis:
The Colt is the best kicker in the NFL, but he’s not the best fantasy
kicker, like many view him. He ranked just 12th in kicker points last
season in large part because Indianapolis doesn’t stall often in the red
zone to give him field-goal opportunities.
Indianapolis: Don’t let
the Colts’ Super Bowl win fool you. Indianapolis lost three starters to
free agency and ranked last in run defense last season, allowing a
whopping 173 yards per game.
UNDERRATED
Matt Stover, Baltimore:
Kickers are the most difficult position to predict, so the best way to
choose one is to draft one that’s been good for more than just the past
year. Nobody is better than Stover, being the only kicker to surpass 120
points in each of the last four years.
Denver: New defensive
coordinator Jim Bates has a history of leading great defenses. The
Broncos also added first-round defensive end Jarvis Moss and signed
former Detroit cornerback Dre’ Bly.
SLEEPERS
Stephen Gostkowski, New England:
The Patriots’ improved offense should lead to more scoring opportunities
for Gostkowski.
Green Bay: The Packers’
defensive line will get a boost with defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins
starting from the opening week, linebacker A.J. Hawk likely will improve
in his second season, and Green Bay has one of the NFL’s elite
cornerback duos in Al Harris and Charles Woodson.
KICKER RANKINGS
- Nate Kaeding
- Jeff Wilkins
- Shayne Graham
- Matt Stover
- Jason Elam
- David Akers
- Adam Vinatieri
- Stephen Gostkowski
- Robbie Gould
- Joe Nedney
- Olindo Mare
- Josh Brown
- John Kasay
- Jeff Reed
- Josh Scobee
TEAM DEFENSE RANKINGS
- Baltimore
- Chicago
- New England
- San Diego
- Denver
- Pittsburgh
- Jacksonville
- Philadelphia
- Dallas
- Green Bay
- Miami
- Minnesota
- Seattle
- Carolina
- San Francisco
 | Draft wide receivers after the second round:
Every year, the wide receiver position is by far the deepest. Owners
can get quality wide receivers in the third round or later. Last year,
Marvin Harrison was the top fantasy receiver. He scored only 4.2
points more per week (0.1 points per yard, six points per TD) than the
No. 20 receiver, Terry Glenn.
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| Look for drop-off points on your cheat sheet:
Where does the talent take a significant dive? Come up with a
pre-draft plan on how many players you realistically can grab before
each drop-off point. This also helps determine which position to
draft. For example, if you need a wide receiver and tight end, and
there are just two receivers left before a drop-off point and six
tight ends remaining before the next drop-off point at that position,
grab a receiver.
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| Focus on your team:
Just because the last four picks were quarterbacks, don’t panic and
think you have to follow suit and take a quarterback. Look at your
team’s needs and determine what’s best for your team.
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| Consider strength of schedule:
When making your cheat sheet, take into consideration the strength of
schedule for the team the player is on (most fantasy season preview
magazines have this information). If a quarterback is facing a bunch
of weak pass defenses, you may want to move that player up your draft
list. This is a way to find sleepers.
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| Don’t reach for your sleepers:
Everybody has sleepers they want to draft. The trick is to not get
overanxious and draft them too early. Think Calvin Johnson will have a
huge rookie season? That’s fine, just don’t take him in the second
round. Instead, grab him maybe a round or two earlier than he’s
expected to go, like the fourth or fifth round. |
