Week 5

Drew Brees (New Orleans) – I am going to go out on a limb here.  With seven interceptions and only one TD pass on the season, Brees is no longer a lock as a starter.  I’m banking on two things:  1) the bye week gave the Saints time to regroup and work the kinks out of their offense, and 2) the Carolina defense will continue to play poorly.  The Panthers rank 20th against the pass, and they have no INTs and just two sacks through four games.  In his one complete game vs. Carolina last season (he was limited to a few snaps in the meaningless season finale), Brees completed 28-of-38 for 349 yards and one TD, without a pick.   

Jason Campbell (Washington) – Campbell let me down a couple of weeks ago vs. the Giants, throwing for just 190 yards and one TD, but I am willing to give him another chance.  The Giants defense might not be as bad as it looked in the first two games.  At a minimum, New York has a better defense than the one he will face this week.  The Lions are ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 267.5 yards per game.   
 

David Carr (Carolina) – It appears that Carr will start for the Panthers for a few more weeks, and this Sunday might be his best opportunity to shine.  The Saints are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post an NFL-high passer rating of 123.4.  Also, Carr is an underrated runner, and don’t be surprised if he gets a touchdown on the ground.   

Phillip Rivers (San Diego) – Rivers has had just one good game this season (Week 3 at Green Bay), and I don’t expect him to break out of his slump at Denver, especially if it is snowing.  Partially because they can’t stop the run, the Broncos have the league’s top-ranked pass defense, allowing a paltry 114.5 yards per game.  Look for the Chargers to take the ball out of Rivers’ hands and let LaDainian Tomlinson do his thing.  

Edgerrin James (Arizona) – Edge is quietly having an impressive season.  He is averaging 89 rushing yards per game and has scored in three of four games.  This week, he will face a St. Louis team that is in a state of disarray.  The Rams rank 29th against the run, allowing 157 yards per game, and they have allowed an NFL-high seven rushing TDs this season.  In his last three games vs. the Rams, James has rushed for 352 yards and four TDs on 73 carries.   

Earnest Graham (Tampa Bay) – Hear we go again.  After a strong start to the season, Indianapolis’ run defense is slipping.  The Colts now rank 22nd against the run, and this week, they will be without OLB Rob Morris (out for the year).  They also might be missing their defensive leader, safety Bob Sanders, who is questionable due to a chest injury.  Graham, meanwhile, takes over for Carnell Williams, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.  In relief of Williams in the past two games, Graham rushed for 123 yards and three TDs on 25 carries.    
 

Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants) – The big guy should be back this Sunday, after missing three games with a sprained knee.  He will likely share the rushing load with Derrick Ward, but you know that Jacobs will get the call near the goal line.  And the Giants will likely be near the goal line quite often against a Jets defense that is allowing 26 points per game.   

Cedric Benson (Chicago) – This former number-one pick isn’t getting it done, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry and scoring just once this season.  This Sunday, Benson will face a Green Bay defense that ranks 15th against the run and has yet to allow a TD on the ground this season.

Steve Smith (Carolina) – He has no touchdowns and only 42 receiving yards in the past two games, and starting QB Jake Delhomme (elbow) is not expected to play this Sunday.  Even so, I still like Smith against a New Orleans defense that has allowed seven passing TDs and picked off just one pass in three games.  Smith has killed the Saints in the past.  In his last five games against them, he has caught 40 balls for 495 yards and five TDs.
   

Dallas Clark (Indianapolis) – Clark is off to the best start of his career, catching 19 balls for 251 yards and four scores in four games.  With both RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) and Marvin Harrison (knee) hurting, Clark should continue to be a major part of the Colts’ offense.   

Antwaan Randle El (Washington) – As noted above, the Lions are struggling against the pass, and with Santana Moss slowed by a sore groin, Randle El will likely be Jason Campbell’s primary target. 

Derrick Mason (Baltimore) – Mason is tied for second in NFL with 33 receptions, but he’s averaging just 8.7 yards per catch and has scored only one touchdown.  More importantly, I don’t see the Ravens throwing the ball very much on Sunday. After back-to-back sub-par efforts, I expect the Baltimore defense to regain its swagger against the 49ers’ struggling offense that is averaging just 14 points per game.  Look for the Ravens to grab an early lead and ride RB Willis McGahee to victory. 

Rob Bironas (Tennessee) – You know that the Falcons are not going to win two in a row, especially on the road against a hot Tennessee team.  The Titans’ underrated defense will keep Joey Harrington and company in check, and Bironas, who is averaging 7.3 points per game, should have at least three field-goal attempts in what should be a dull affair.   

Kansas City Defense – Kansas City will host a Jacksonville offense that has yet to find a running game and is scoring less than 16 points per game.  Very quietly, the Chiefs have climbed to third overall in defense, allowing just 286 yards per game, and they are also tied for the AFC lead in takeaways with 10.   

Phil Dawson (Cleveland) – Kicking for the upstart Browns, Dawson is averaging a solid 7.8 points per game.  I’d stay away from him this week, however, because Cleveland will be overmatched by the undefeated Patriots.  New England is scoring points in bunches, and opponents can’t afford to settle for field goals to keep pace.  On the season, the Pats have allowed a league-low two FGs. 
  

Josh Brown (Seattle) – Brown has made all eight of his field-goal attempts this season, and is averaging 8.2 points per game.  This Sunday, however, he and the rest of the Seahawks will face the Steelers’ 2nd-ranked defense that is allowing less than 12 points per game.  Only five teams have allowed fewer FGs than the Steelers (4) this season.