Week 11

Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) – McNabb has been taking a lot of heat this season, but his numbers have been fairly consistent lately.  He’s completed at least 20 passes in five straight games, and over that span, he’s averaged 270 passing yards, with a total of eight touchdowns and three interceptions.  Assuming that RB Brian Westbrook (knee) plays on Sunday, which is likely, McNabb should have one of his better games of the year against the Dolphins’ struggling defense.  Miami has a lofty rating of fifth against the pass, but that is a deceiving stat.  Against the Phins this season, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 15 scores (the sixth highest total in the league) and have posted a passer rating of 97.6 (the second rating highest in the NFL). 

Matt Schaub (Houston) – Schaub was very steady at the start of the season, throwing for at least 225 yards in six straight games.  However, due to a variety of injuries, he missed the Texans’ last game and was unable to finish the prior two contests.  Not only is he healthy now, but so is his top receiver, Pro Bowler Andre Johnson.  This tandem should fare well on Sunday against a New Orleans defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post an NFL-high passer rating of 100.4.  The Saints also rank 29th for both passing yards allowed (251 ypg.) and TD passes allowed (17).   

Jason Campbell (Washington) – Campbell may be coming off a three-touchdown game, but I would stay away from him on Sunday vs. Dallas.  After a shaky start to the season, the Cowboys have steadily improved against the pass, holding five of their last six opponents to less than 195 passing yards.  Campbell, meanwhile, has thrown for less than 218 yards in five consecutive games, and over that span, he has passed for just five scores (with 3 coming last week). 

Chester Taylor (Minnesota) – He may not be Adrian Peterson, but Taylor might produce Peterson-like numbers against the Raiders’ 29th-ranked run defense that has allowed an NFL-high 13 scores on the ground this season.  Aided by an offensive line that regularly opens big holes for its running backs, Taylor is averaging a career-high 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Raiders, on the other hand, were allowing a whopping 5.3 per attempt just two weeks ago, but after facing plodding runners in back-to-back games (Ron Dayne and Cedric Benson), the average has dropped 4.8, which is still the highest in the league.   

Maurice Morris (Seattle) – Morris’ first start of the season came last week against the 49ers, and he had a solid game, rushing for 87 yards and one TD on 28 carries.  This week, he’ll take on Chicago’s 26th-ranked run defense that has allowed an average of 157 yards in the past five games.   
 

Laurence Maroney (New England) – Maroney is still searching for his first score of the season, but his owners have to be encouraged by the fact that he’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry.  This week, the second-year back will face a Buffalo defense that ranks 20th against the run.  In Week 3 against the Bills, Maroney ran for a season-high 103 yards on 19 carries.   

Thomas Jones (NY Jets) – Playing for the struggling Jets has not worked out very well for Jones, who was traded from Chicago in the offseason.  He’s averaging 81 total yards per game, which isn’t horrible, but he has yet to find the end zone this season.  Don’t look for Jones to have a breakout game against the Steelers’ top-ranked run defense that is allowing just 72 yards per game.  Pittsburgh also has given up only two TDs on the ground this season, which is a league low.   
 

Justin Fargas (Oakland) – In his past three games (two starts), Huggie Bear Jr. has rushed for 246 yards and one score on 58 carries and caught 10 balls for another 74 yards.  Fargas’ hot streak will likely come to end on Sunday in Minnesota.  The Vikings’ defenders are angry about last week, when they allowed Green Bay RB Ryan Grant to become the first player to rush for 100 yards against them this season.  Grant was only the second 100-yard rusher that they allowed in the past 25 games.  On the season, Minnesota has held seven of nine opponents to less than 97 yards on the ground, and unlike the Packers, the Raiders’ passing attack doesn’t pose much of a threat, making it easier for the Vikings to focus on stopping Fargas. 

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – Fitzgerald has had at least four receptions and 74 yards in eight straight games, and he should continue his hot streak in Cincinnati.  Even with last week’s shutout of the Ravens, the Bengals rank 28th against the pass (248 ypg.) and 31st for TD passes allowed (20). 
 

Torry Holt (St. Louis) – Holt, who is coming off an eight-catch, 124-yard performance against the Saints, should have another big day against the 49ers.  In his last nine games vs. San Francisco, Holt has had four efforts of 125-plus yards and has scored six touchdowns.  The Rams’ offense is finally getting healthy; their offensive line is still a mess, but at least their key skill players are back in the lineup.  San Francisco is going in the opposite direction; the offense can’t stay out of its own way, and the defense is being left on the field for long periods of time.  As a result, the 49ers have given up an average of 27 points in their last four games, and over that span, they have allowed their opponents to rush for either 140-plus yards or pass for 274-plus yards.   
 

Jeremy Shockey (NY Giants) – Last week, Shockey caught a career-high 12 passes for 129 yards and a score against the Cowboys, and with WR Plaxico Burress continuing to be slowed by an ankle sprain, look for the tight end to remain a primary target for Eli Manning.  This week, Shockey will face a Detroit defense that has been horrible against the pass, ranking 30th for both yards allowed (257 ypg.) and TD passes allowed (18).   

Mark Clayton (Baltimore) – Clayton finally had a decent game, catching eight balls for 107 yards against the Bengals last week.  Ironically, the Ravens were shut out.  Nevertheless, look for the third-year wide receiver to have another solid game this Sunday vs. the Browns.  Kyle Boller will get the start at QB, and he can’t be any worse than Steve McNair, and with TE Todd Heap (hamstring) doubtful and WR Demetrius Williams (ankle) out, Clayton figures to be one of Boller’s primary targets.  More importantly, the Ravens’ passing tandem will be facing a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (273 ypg.) and dead last in TD passes allowed (22).   

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) – Last week, the rookie wide receiver rebounded from a no-catch effort in Week 9 to grab nine balls for 105 yards against the Broncos.  This week, however, will likely be another story.  Brodie Croyle takes over at quarterback for the Chiefs, and the youngster is bound to experience some growing pains.  The QB’s first start will be against the Colts, who are allowing just 165 passing yards per game (ranked 2nd) and have given up only nine TDs through the air this season.  And while the loss of Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney (out for the season) might hurt Indianapolis down the road, and I don’t see his injury being an issue this week.  When the two teams met in the playoffs last year, the Chiefs scored just eight points and were limited to 126 yards of total offense. 

Adam Vinatieri (Indianapolis) – Mr. Clutch has missed three field-goal attempts in his last two games, including a potential game winner from PAT range against the Chargers on Sunday night.  As kickers go, Vinatieri (34) is still relatively young, and I doubt that he’s losing his touch.  Look for him to bounce back this week at home in the dome vs. the Chiefs.  In last year’s playoff matchup vs. Kansas City, he made all three of his FG attempts, including two from 48-plus yards, and he scored a total of 11 points.   

Eagles Defense – The Philadelphia defense has been mediocre this year.  The unit ranks 14th in total yards allowed (322 ypg.) and 12th for points allowed (20 per game).  However, I like the Birds’ chances this week against a Miami offense that will have rookie John Beck under center.  Beck will be making his first NFL start, and he doesn’t have many weapons to work with. 
 

NY Giants Defense – The Giants’ defensive line is a mismatch against the Lions’ offensive line.  The G-men top the league with 32 sacks, while Detroit’s quarterbacks have been sacked an NFL-high 40 times through nine games.   

Baltimore Defense – Prior to this season, the Baltimore defense would be a must-start vs. the Browns, but the situation has drastically changed.  Cleveland sports one of the top offenses in the league, ranking 11th in total yards (343 ypg.) and fourth in points scored (28 ppg.).  The Ravens, meanwhile, have been hit hard by injuries in the secondary, and they have allowed an average of 26 points in their past three games.   
 

Robbie Gould (Chicago) – Last year, Gould was a point-producing machine, as the Bears featured a dominating defense and could win games by relying on FGs, instead of touchdowns.  This season, the Chicago defense is not playing up to par, and Gould is averaging just 6.6 points per game, compared to 8.9 in 2006.  He hasn’t helped his cause by missing four FGs this season, including one in each of his last three games.  Last year, he missed just four field-goal attempts for the entire season.