Heading into Week 13

QB Kurt Warner (Arizona) – I must admit that I am not impressed with Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt – he’s a bit too wacky for me.  For example, he continues to occasionally pull Warner at the goal line for Tim Rattay.  Nevertheless, Warner is putting up good numbers, throwing for 954 yards and seven scores in his past three games.  With his next three opponents having an average ranking of 24th against the pass, look for Warner to remain hot down the stretch. 

RB Jamal Lewis (Baltimore) – Lewis has rushed for 226 yards in his past two games, and scored six TDs in his past four.  He won’t face a run defense ranked better than 15th for the rest of the season.  In fact, the average ranking for those run defenses is 24th. 

WR Deion Branch (Seattle) – The wide receiver carousel continues to turn in Seattle.  The red-hot D.J. Hackett will miss at least two weeks after re-injuring his right ankle at St. Louis.  The good news is that Branch re-emerged last week, catching five balls for 92 yards and a score against the Rams.  Look for Branch and slot receiver Bobby Engram to be QB Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite targets for at least a few weeks. 

QB Jason Campbell (Washington) – A few weeks ago, I had written off Campbell, who was consistently posting mediocre numbers.  However, in his past three games, he has thrown for 864 yards and six scores, and he’s done it against good defenses.  With four of his next five games being against defenses that rank 21st or higher against the pass, the third-year quarterback should continue to be productive. 

RB Kolby Smith (Kansas City) – Smith showed good elusiveness and vision against the Raiders on Sunday.  The rookie gained 150 yards and scored two TDs on 31 carries.  Of course, Oakland has the worst run defense in pro football.  Nonetheless, Smith will get at least one more start, and possibly more.  Starter Larry Johnson did some light running at practice on Wednesday, but he will not play vs. the Chargers. 

K Mason Crosby (Green Bay) – The rookie from Colorado has scored an average of 11.3 points in his last four games, and the Packers’ five remaining opponents have an average ranking of 25th for scoring defense. 

Minnesota Defense – The Vikings won’t face Eli and company again during the regular season.  However, with their last five opponents (Det, SF, Chi, Was, and Den) all ranking in the top half of the league for giveaways, you can expect more big plays from Minnesota’s defense. 

QB Eli Manning (NY Giants) – In his past three games, Manning has averaged a respectable 264 passing yards, but over the same span, he has thrown a total of three TDs and six INTs.  Last Sunday, he looked awful against the Vikings’ last-ranked pass defense, completing less than 43 percent of his passes and throwing four picks, three of which were returned for scores.  He rushed his passes, he didn’t step into many of his throws, and he stared at his targets.  To be fair, Manning didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers, especially Plaxico Burress, who is struggling to run anything but “go” routes because of his sore ankle.  Manning’s remaining schedule is not bad, but if he can’t throw for more than one score against the Vikings and the Lions, I don’t think that you can trust him down the stretch. 

WR Lee Evans (Buffalo) – Evans has been held under 66 receiving yards and without a score in three straight games.  His good buddy, J.P. Losman, has been benched again, and the Bills’ schedule is not favorable for passing.  Three of their next four games being against defenses that rank 13th or better against the pass. 

RB Julius Jones (Dallas) – Jones had one of his more productive days of the season on Thanksgiving vs. the Jets, totaling 90 yards on 14 carries and four receptions.  I wouldn’t get too excited, however.  Four of his last five games will be against defenses that rank 13th or better against the run. 

K Jeff Reed (Pittsburgh) – Pittsburgh’s entire offense struggled in Monday night’s quagmire vs. Miami, and Reed was the only player to score, making one of his two field-goal attempts.  We know that Heinz Field can be a very tricky place for kickers even when the field is dry, and kicking in the muck and mud only makes it more difficult for Reed.  With help from the NFL, the Steelers will try to dry out the field before Sunday night’s game vs. Cincinnati.  Hopefully, they will succeed.  Reed plays two of his next three games at home, with a contest at New England in between. 

Arizona Defense – The Cards allowed 37 points to San Francisco last Sunday, which was more than the 49ers had scored in their four previous games combined.  Arizona has lost three defensive starters for the season in as many weeks.  Defensive end Bertrand Berry went down with a torn right triceps against Detroit on Nov. 11.  Cornerback Eric Green suffered a groin tear in the first half of Sunday’s overtime loss, and on Wednesday, the team announced that Pro Bowl safety Adrian Wilson will need surgery on his ailing right heel.

RB Adrian Peterson (Chicago) – Peterson will take over for the injured Cedric Benson.  A starting running back is not easy to find at this point of the season, so you have to grab him if he’s available.  I wouldn’t have high expectations, however.  The Bears’ schedule is not favorable, and rookie RB Garrett Wolfe will get some touches as well. 

QB A.J. Feeley (Philadelphia) – Donovan McNabb is still the starter in Philly, but he probably won’t be back until next week.  After Feeley’s impressive performance at New England, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for McNabb owners to pick up the backup QB as insurance. 

WR Jabar Gaffney (New England) – He is another insurance policy.  Gaffney has caught nine balls for 131 yards and one TD in his past two outings, but before that, he did not have more than 39 yards in a single game this season.  The only way that he’ll produce consistent numbers would be if Randy Moss or Wes Welker would miss significant time. 

WR Sidney Rice (Minnesota) – It’s too bad that the Vikings don’t throw the ball more often because this kid can catch.  Rice has scored in two of his past three games, but over that span, he has caught a modest nine balls for 166 yards.   

K Josh Scobee (Jacksonville) – Scobee is finally healthy.  We know that because: 1) John Carney was sent packing (and then signed by the Chiefs), and 2) he’s made all six of his field-goal attempts in the past two games, including two from 46-plus yards. 

K Matt Bryant (Tampa Bay) – Bryant has scored an average of 8.3 points in his last four games, and the Bucs won’t play a defense ranked higher than 19th for points allowed in their next four games. 

RBs Fred Jackson and Dwayne Wright (Buffalo) – The best thing that I can say about these guys right now is:  “somebody has run the ball for the Bills this week.”  Jackson, an undrafted free agent, spent his rookie season on the Bills’ practice squad last year.  He has nine carries for 34 yards and eight catches for 55 yards this season.  Wright, a fourth-round pick in ’07, has 26 carries for 77 yards and three catches for 17 yards.

DL Patrick Kerney (Seattle) – In his past two games, Kerney has recorded 12 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles, and one interception.  That’s one busy boy.  Kerney now ranks second in the league in sacks with 10.5 and ranks 17th among defensive linemen with 40 tackles. 

DL Adewale Ogunleye (Chicago) – Like Kerney, Ogunleye (41 tackles and nine sacks) is having a Pro-Bowl type year.  He has been especially hot in his last three games, racking up 16 tackles and five sacks. 

DB Michael M. Lewis (San Francisco) – This former Eagle (not the former beer-truck driver who returns kicks) has averaged eight tackles over his past five games.  He now has 75 stops on the season, which ranks him second in the league among defensive backs, trailing only the Giants’ Gibril Wilson.

LB Greg Ellis (Dallas) – The Cowboys were not even sure that Ellis would play this season, but he has recovered nicely from last season’s Achilles’ tendon tear.  The ten-year veteran won’t get you many tackles (2-3 per game), but he is averaging more than one sack per outing this season. 

QB David Garrard (Jacksonville) – Garrard is coming off a 296-yard performance, and he hasn’t thrown a pick all season.  Still, I don’t know how much you can count on him down the stretch.  He will face three top-five pass defenses over the next four weeks. 

TE Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City) – Gonzalez has been held under 49 yards and without a score in three straight games.  However, due to Brodie Croyle’s back injury, we may have not seen the last of Damon Huard, and if that’s the case, you can expect Gonzalez’s numbers to go up.  When Huard went back to pass this season, there were long stretches during games when the quarterback didn’t look for any other receiver besides Gonzo.  Better yet, the Pro Bowl tight end will close the season against three defenses that rank 19th or worse against the pass, and the two exceptions, the Broncos and the Titans, aren’t exactly playing good defense right now. 

WR Roy Williams (Detroit) – I don’t know how much validity there is to the William Clay Ford story.  According to DetroitNews.com, the Lions owner told his coaching staff last week to get the ball to rookie WR Calvin Johnson, but other writers close to the situation say that it is highly unlikely that Ford would do such a thing.  Williams, of course, had a quiet game on Thanksgiving against the Packers, but then again, he was covered by one of the best corners in the league (Al Harris).  I still like Williams to finish the season strong, especially with his next three games all being against defenses that rank 21st or worse against the pass.