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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 6

By Richard Harris
October 11, 2007
 

I apologize that the “Tip Sheet” and the rest of our info is coming out late this week.  I knew there would be times this season when things would be late, which is the primary reason the site is free.   

Moving on, there are three teams that are still undefeated – the Colts, the Pats, and the Cowboys.  With Indy having a bye and New England traveling to Dallas this weekend, that number will obviously drop to two.   

Heading into that showdown, the Cowboys and the Patriots will likely have very different mindsets.   

Dallas is coming off a miraculous comeback win at Buffalo on Monday night.  The Cowboys overcame six Tony Romo turnovers, two of which were returned for scores, and won on a last-second field goal, 25-24.  On one hand, Dallas fans had to be happy to see their team fight to the very end.  On the other hand, you have to wonder if the Cowboys will be a little bit overconfident after this type of victory, thinking that they can win no matter how sloppy they play.  

The Patriots are another story.  Thanks to the cheating scandal, they are playing with major chips on the shoulders.  They have been mowing teams down by more than 23 points per game, and there have been times when you could have accused them of running up the score.  Tom Brady’s passer rating (128.7) is off the charts, and believe it or not, he is on pace to throw 51 TD passes this season, which would break Peyton Manning’s record of 49.   

The Pats are on a mission to prove that their past championships were not the result of cheating.  I don’t know if beating the crap out of everyone this season proves that, but their “we’ll-show-you” mentality is proving to be a very effective motivational tool.  It almost makes you wonder if Bill Belichick wanted to get caught cheating.  He’s not that smart, is he?  

A number of players were injured in Week 5, including Damon Huard (shoulder), WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring), David Carr (back), RB Michael Pittman (ankle), WR Deion Branch (foot), QB Matt Leinart (collarbone), WR Antwaan Randle El (hamstring), QB Trent Green (concussion), WR Joe Jurevicius (knee), RB Jamal Lewis (foot), WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring), and WR Bernard Berrian (foot).   

Leinart is done for the year, Green is out indefinitely, Pittman will miss at least a month, and Branch will miss at least two games.  Kennison, Carr, Randle El, Lewis, and Berrian have yet to practice this week, and they are questionable/doubtful for Week 6.  Jurevicius, who has been limited at practice, is also questionable.  Huard appears to be fine, and he is expected to start.  Holmes should be fine after the Steelers’ bye.   

Now, let’s take a look at the market.

STOCK RISING

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K Kris Brown (Houston) – This may be the first and last time that a kicker leads off the “Tip Sheet,” but Brown deserves props for his outstanding effort in Week 5.  He made all five of his field-goal attempts, including a record-breaking three from 50-plus yards, and he also won the game for the Texans by driving one home from 57 yards out.  Brown is now averaging 10 points per game and has missed just once on 14 FG attempts. 

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K Nick Folk (Dallas) – Yeah, another kicker.  This rookie proved that he was the real deal on Monday night, making all four of his field-goal attempts, including the game winner from 53 yards.  And he had to kick that 53-yarder twice because the Bills called a timeout just before the snap of his first attempt.  Folk is now tied with Brown and Adam Vinatieri for the league lead in scoring with 50 points, and the rookie from Arizona has missed just once on 11 FG attempts.   

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QB Kurt Warner (Arizona) – Arizona’s two-QB rotation came to an abrupt end when Matt Leinart broke his collarbone.  In limited action this season, Warner has looked very good, posting a QB rating of 102.3.  The former MVP should put up nice numbers for the Cardinals, especially when WR Anquan Boldin (hip) gets back in the lineup.

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TE Ben Watson (New England) – Tom Brady has always enjoyed throwing to his tight ends in the red zone, and with Daniel Graham now in Denver, Watson is reaping the benefits, scoring five TDs in five games. 

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RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants) – The 264-pound Jacobs is rolling again.  It appears that he’ll be sharing the rushing load with Derrick Ward, but the good news is that you know that the Giants will call on the big fella when they get close to the goal line. 

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RB Kenton Keith (Indianapolis) – Several times, I recommended that Joseph Addai owners grab Keith.  Hopefully, you listened. 

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WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay) – Brett Favre is spreading the ball around this season, and Donald Driver remains his favorite target.  However, the veteran QB has a lot of faith in Jennings, too.  The second-year wideout was on the receiving end of three milestone touchdowns for Favre (No. 400, 421, and 422).  Despite missing the first two games of the season, Jennings leads the team in TD receptions with three.  On the downside, he’s nursing a sore hamstring and a sore shoulder. 

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TE Owen Daniels (Houston) – With Andre Johnson (knee) and Jacoby Jones (shoulder) hurting, Daniels has picked up the slack for the Texans’ depleted receiving corps.  The second-year tight end has had at least five receptions and at least 56 receiving yards in four straight games. 

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Tennessee Defense – Led by DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DT Albert Haynesworth, and LB Keith Bullock, the Titans rank in the top ten for most major defensive categories, including total defense, run defense, pass defense, scoring defense, and interceptions. 

STOCK FALLING

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K Olindo Mare (New Orleans) – Partially due to a sore groin, Mare has been horrendous this season.  The Saints are looking at other kickers, and you should do the same.

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WR Mark Clayton (Baltimore) – Sore knee and all, Derrick Mason continues to catch most of the passes in Baltimore.  A quarterback change would likely help Clayton’s stats, but you can’t count on that happening. 

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QB Drew Brees (New Orleans) – It’s not all his fault; his line, his receivers and his backs aren’t playing very well, either.  It’s safe to say that Brees is not going to play up to expectations this year, but at least you know that he’ll continue to throw the ball a lot because the Saints can’t run the ball and can’t play defense.

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RB Thomas Jones (NY Jets) – Jones misses Chicago, and Chicago misses Jones.  As a Jet, he has had just two good quarters of football this season.  Jones isn’t getting the ball enough, the line isn’t opening a lot of holes when he does, and opposing defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage because they don’t think QB Chad Pennington can beat them deep. 

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WR Chris Chambers (Miami) – Chambers had a good connection with Trent Green, catching at least six passes in the first three games of the season.  However, the wide receiver has cooled off, catching a total of just four balls in his last two outings, and he has yet to find the end zone this season.  To make matters worse, Green is out for at least a few weeks due to a concussion.  Backup QB Cleo Lemon has made just one start during his career (12/31/2006), and in that game, Chambers was limited to three catches for 39 yards. 

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RB Shaun Alexander (Seattle) – Age appears to be catching up with Alexander.  He has just two TDs on the season, and he’s averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.  After Sunday’s 21-0 loss at Pittsburgh, Coach Mike Holmgren said that backup Maurice Morris will get more carries in future games. 

BEAR MARKET

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QB David Garrard (Jacksonville) – He’s not going to win you any league titles, but he won’t hurt you either.  Garrard is passing for an average of 212 yards and one TD per game, and he has yet to throw a pick this season. 

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RB Najeh Davenport (Pittsburgh) – The Steelers say that Willie Parker, and not Davenport, is their short-yardage and goal-line guy, but the numbers tell a different story.  Davenport leads the team with three rushing scores, while Parker has just one.  At a minimum, you know that Davenport will get some touches every game as the Steelers’ primary third-down back.  That’s assuming that his latest legal troubles don’t lead to a suspension. 

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RB Vernand Morency (Green Bay) – Having the most experience of any tailback on the roster, the Packers appear to favor using Morency in passing situations.  In other words, he’s their third-down back.  Like Garrard, he won’t carry your fantasy team, but he’s not a bad option for your bench.   

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RB Jason Wright (Cleveland) – With Jamal Lewis (foot) not practicing, it appears that Wright will be the Browns’ primary ball carrier this weekend.  I must admit that the fourth-year tailback has never impressed me, but you have to like the fact that he will be facing the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked run defense. 

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TE Greg Olsen (Chicago) – Writers in the Chicago area spent a good portion of the summer gushing about Olsen’s speed and skills.  Unfortunately, the rookie injured a knee in the preseason, and his pro career got off to a very slow start.  On Sunday night, Olsen played his first game without the bulky brace that was protecting his knee, and he made an immediate impact, catching four balls for 57 yards and a score. 

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RB Kenneth Darby (Tampa Bay) – The Ernest Graham experiment is not off to a roaring start.  On Sunday against the Colts, he gained just 11 yards on six carries.  With Michael Pittman (ankle) out for at least a month, Darby moves up to the No. 2 tailback spot, and if the undrafted rookie out of Alabama makes the most of his opportunities, he could take the starting job away from Graham.  Former Raider FB Zack Crockett, who was signed this week, will likely also figure in the mix as a short-yardage and goal-line runner. 

IDP ALERT

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LB Julian Peterson (Seattle) – Peterson is wreaking havoc all over the field this season.  He is second on the team with 34 tackles, and leads the Hawks with six sacks. 

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DE Andre Carter (Washington) – Going back to last season, Carter has racked up eight sacks in his last nine games. 

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LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona) – He hasn’t made a lot of big plays this year, like he was known to do in past seasons, but he is averaging over eight tackles per game. 

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LB Jon Beason (Carolina) – This rookie from Miami did a good job containing Reggie Bush last Sunday, and he now leads the Panthers with 36 stops on the season. 

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DB Aaron Ross (NY Giants) – I usually shy away from cornerbacks because of their inconsistent tackle numbers, but you can’t ignore what the first-rounder from Texas did in just two quarters against the Jets (2 tackles, 3 passes defended, 2 interceptions, and 1 touchdown). 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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RB Sammy Morris (New England) – OK, so you’re loving life because Morris, an NFL journeyman, is giving you 100 rushing yards every week.  Hold on there, Bubby.  Morris’ two 100-yard efforts came against two of the worst run defenses in the league (Cincinnati and Cleveland), and he averaged 21 carries in those games because Laurence Maroney (groin) was out of the lineup.  Maroney may not be back this week, but when he does return, you can bet on Morris’ numbers going down. 

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RB Travis Henry (Denver) – We have known for quite some time that Henry is not wrapped too tight.  He’s in the league’s substance abuse program, and he has fathered nine children with nine different women.  Now, he’s facing a year-long suspension from the league for another substance abuse violation.  Henry is contesting the test results, and a final ruling on his playing status probably won’t be made for another month or so.  Even so, it would be wise for Henry owners to grab his backup, Selvin Young.  Given that the Broncos have a fairly difficult schedule and that they have lost two starting offensive linemen for the season, it might be even wiser to ship Henry to another team. 

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WR Steve Smith (Carolina) – Had Smith not found the end zone in the fourth quarter against the Saints, he would have had his third consecutive sub-par game.  You might want to sell last week’s performance to another owner as a sign of good things to come.  The QB situation in Carolina is a mess – Jake Delhomme (elbow) is done for the year, and backup David Carr (back), who wasn’t playing very well, might not be able to go this week.  The other options are:  undrafted rookie Matt Moore and 67-year-old Vinny Testaverde.  Ugh!

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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RB Larry Johnson (Kansas City) – The explanations for Johnson’s slow start vary.  Some blame a declining offensive line and a passing attack that doesn’t scare anyone, while others are saying that Johnson is not giving his best effort after signing a big, fat contract in the preseason.  The reasons don’t matter much.  The bottom line is that LJ is not getting it done for your fantasy team, and your not going to get fair market value if you try to trade him right now.  There is still hope, however, because five of his next six games will be against teams that are struggling to stop the run. 

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RB Kevin Jones (Detroit) – The Lions need to find a running game to keep their generous defense off the field and to keep their quarterback from getting killed. Jones gained 48 yards on 11 carries, all in the second half, in Sunday’s 34-3 loss at Washington. He replaced an ineffective Tatum Bell.  Assuming that Jones’ injured left foot, which prevented him from playing until Week 3, isn’t giving him any trouble, look for him to reclaim the starting job after the Lions’ bye. 

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S Rodney Harrison (New England) – Harrison’s return from a four-game suspension was uneventful.  He didn’t start against the Browns and was limited to one tackle.  It’s unlikely that the Patriots will keep their defensive leader out of the starting lineup much longer, and even though he might have lost a step or two, I would expect Harrison to post solid numbers.  In 46 games with New England, Harrison has averaged 7.2 tackles per game and totaled seven sacks and six picks.   

A FINAL THOUGHT 

In Week 5, the Jets, the Ravens, and the Chiefs combined to score just two offensive touchdowns.  What do those teams have in common?  They’re all starting quarterbacks who don’t throw the deep ball very well.  Without the vertical threat, opposing defenses can focus on stuffing the run, and they’ll gladly allow you to dink and dunk your way down the field because the chances for you to make a mistake (sack or turnover) are greater the longer your drives last.   

The Chiefs’ Damon Huard and the Jets’ Chad Pennington shoulder much of the blame for Larry Johnson’s and the Thomas Jones’ respective slow starts.  Willis McGahee is producing respectable stats, but he would be doing a lot better if Steve McNair wasn’t under center for the Ravens.   

The irony is that all three teams have strong-armed backups, but only one of them, Baltimore’s Kyle Boller, has significant experience.  Experienced or not, there has to be a point when you say, “we’re going nowhere with these veterans, and we have to give the young guys a shot.” 

 

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