|
| |

Heading into Week 8
|
|
By Richard Harris |
| October 23, 2007 |
| |
|
We have basically reached the
halfway point of the fantasy football season. Hopefully, you’re still
in contention. I am in eight different leagues, and I am still alive in
all of them.
I spent some time studying the
standings, the rosters, and the top performers in my eight leagues. I
was curious to see if there were any trends among the leaders and the
basement dwellers. If you look at the chart below, you’ll see that I
have listed the record/total points, the studs, and the busts for each
of my teams. I did the same for the top team and the worst team in each
league.
|
# |
My Team’s Record/Pts |
My Team’s Studs |
My Team’s Busts |
Top Team’s Record/Pts |
Top Team’s Studs |
Top Team’s Busts |
Worst Team’s Record/Pts |
Worst Team’s Studs |
Worst Team’s Busts |
|
1 |
6-1 |
Tony Romo &
Brian Westbrook |
Laurence
Maroney |
6-1 |
Tony Romo &
Brian Westbrook |
Laurence
Maroney |
2-5 |
Laveranues
Coles |
Drew Brees,
Steven Jackson, & Javon Walker |
|
2 |
931 |
Tony Romo
and Larry Johnson |
Deion
Branch |
988 |
Ronnie
Brown, Chad Johnson, & Tony Gonzalez |
Drew Brees |
648 |
Larry
Fitzgerald & Dallas Clark |
Vince Young,
Laurence Maroney, & Santana Moss |
|
3 |
5-2 |
Larry
Johnson & Clinton Portis |
Donovan
McNabb & Javon Walker |
6-1 |
Tony Romo &
Brian Westbrook |
Cedric
Benson |
1-6 |
Ronnie Brown |
Matt Leinart,
Lee Evans, & Santana Moss |
|
4 |
4-3 |
Tony Romo &
Plaxico Burress |
Laurence
Maroney |
5-2 |
Tom Brady &
Laveranues Coles |
Darrell
Jackson |
0-7 |
Adrian
Peterson |
Shaun
Alexander & Donovan McNabb |
|
5 |
4-3 |
Tom Brady |
Steven
Jackson & Reggie Brown |
5-2 |
Randy Moss,
Wes Welker, & Steve Smith |
Donovan
McNabb |
1-6 |
LaDianian
Tomlinson & Adrian Peterson |
Marc Bulger
& Marvin Harrison |
|
6 |
2-5 |
Derrick
Anderson, Brian Westbrook, & Willis McGahee |
Donovan
McNabb, Lee Evans, & Alge Crumpler |
6-1 |
Tony Romo,
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Jason Witten |
Laurence
Maroney |
1-6 |
Carson
Palmer & Reggie Wayne |
Travis Henry
& Tatum Bell |
|
7 |
33-44 |
Peyton
Manning, Laveranues Coles, & Tony Gonzalez |
Ahman
Green & Hines Ward |
60-17 |
Tony Romo,
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Braylon Edwards |
Lee Evans |
26-51 |
Carson
Palmer & Minnesota Defense |
Chester
Taylor, Marvin Harrison, & Darrell Jackson |
|
8 |
621 |
Clinton
Portis and Tony Gonzalez |
Marc Bulger,
Vince Young, & Steven Jackson |
807 |
LaDainian
Tomlinson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Steve Smith |
Todd Heap |
602 |
Willis
McGahee & Larry Fitzgerald |
Shaun
Alexander, Reggie Brown, & Darrell Jackson |
Three players show up regularly in
the “Stud” column for the first-place teams and my stronger teams: QB
Tony Romo, RB Brian Westbrook, and WR T.J.
Houshmandzadeh. In your average overall-performance leagues, the
top six fantasy performers have been QB Tom Brady, WR Randy
Moss, Romo, RB Ronnie Brown, Houshmandzadeh, and RB
LaDainian Tomlinson (in that order). Westbrook is ranked 13th. So,
why is it that most of the best teams in these leagues feature Romo,
Westbrook, Houshmandzadeh, rather than Brady, Tomlinson, and Moss?
The answer is probably draft
position. On average, Brady was taken three or four rounds before Romo,
and Tomlinson was taken 6-12 picks ahead of Westbrook. (Moss and T.J.
went roughly at the same time – around pick 40.) Taking Westbrook late
in the first round and/or Romo in the sixth round, rather than using the
first overall pick on LT and/or taking Brady late in the second round,
likely allowed Westbrook and Romo owners to draft better all-around
teams.
If you look at the last-place teams
and my weaker squads, the player that shows up most in the “Bust”
column is RB Steven Jackson. The rest of the busts included
Laurence Maroney, Shaun Alexander, Marc Bulger, and
Lee Evans. Once again, the difference between Jackson and the rest
of the busts is draft position.
Those who took Jackson at No. 2
overall didn’t pick again until late in the second round. Those who
drafted Maroney late in the first round picked early in the second
round. Assuming that the second-round picks for both groups are living
up to their draft slot, the Maroney owners will find themselves in
better shape than the Jackson owners. That appears to be the case for
the teams above, as the three of the four clubs with Maroney on the
roster have a combined record of 16-5, with the fourth team bringing up the
rear in the total points race of league No. 2. The Jackson teams have a 6-8
record, and that doesn’t count my squad in league No. 8 that is close to
the basement in a total points race.
It’s not a surprise that owners who
picked players that are outperforming their draft slot, such as Romo,
are doing very well. It also is not news that high-round flops, such as
Jackson, are killing their fantasy teams. However, what’s interesting
about this data is that it indicates that it might be better to draft
late in the first round, as opposed to early. This is a subject that
we’ll have to explore further near the end of the season.
Moving on to injury news, Miami RB
Ronnie Brown, one of the most pleasant surprises of the season,
is done for the year due to an ACL injury. He came into Week 7 leading
the league in total yards from scrimmage. What a shame.
Other players who were injured in
Week 7 included: QB Matt Schaub (ankle and hip), QB Tarvaris
Jackson (broken finger), RB Frank Gore (ankle), QB Matt
Hasselbeck (oblique), QB Byron Leftwich (ankle), QB Tony
Romo (hamstring), WR Jerry Porter (shoulder), RB Cedric
Benson (knee), TE Tony Scheffler (ankle), RB Travis Henry
(ribs), QB David Garrard (ankle), and RB Maurice Jones-Drew
(knee). Of that group, Leftwich is the only player certain to miss some
time (probably somewhere between 2-6 weeks). Garrard will likely miss
at least one game. The rest of that group are probable/questionable for
their next game.
Now, let’s take a look at the market
conditions.
STOCK RISING
 |
QB Ben Roethlisberger
(Pittsburgh) – Big Ben, who is coming off a
four-TD performance against Denver’s second-ranked pass defense, has
never been a big yardage guy, but he’s usually good for at least one
TD pass per game. Better yet, five of his next six games will be
against defenses that rank 24th or worse for touchdown passes
allowed. |
 |
RB Kevin Jones (Detroit)
– Jones had a solid game (110 total yards and 1 TD) against the Bucs.
More importantly, he kept Tatum Bell on the bench for an entire game.
|
 |
WR Anquan Boldin (Arizona)
– He may not be much of a passer, but in his four games this season,
Boldin has averaged 7.5 receptions, 79 receiving yards and 1.3 TDs per
game. Working in Boldin’s favor for the rest of the season is the
fact that QB Kurt Warner’s injured left elbow held up on Sunday, and
four of the Cards’ next seven games will be against defenses that rank
27th or worse against the pass. |
 |
WR Laveranues Coles (NY Jets)
– When he scores his next touchdown, Coles will tie a career high for
scores in a season (7 in 2001). With four of his next six games
against defenses that rank 23rd or worse for TD passes allowed, Coles
is basically a lock to reach and exceed that mark. |
 |
WR Ike Hilliard (Tampa Bay)
– Can you win the Comeback Player of the Year award if you haven’t
done anything for three straight seasons? Well, Hilliard is on a
major roll lately, catching an average of seven passes for 81 yards in
his past four games. |
 |
K Josh Brown (Seattle)
– Not much is going right in Seattle these days, but at least Brown
can claim that he ranks eighth in the NFL in scoring with 53 points.
With four of his next six games against defenses that rank 22nd or
worse for points allowed, look for the veteran kicker to remain hot.
|
STOCK FALLING
 |
RB Shaun Alexander (Seattle)
– Alexander makes this list for the second consecutive week because he
did virtually nothing against a St. Louis defense that came into last
week’s game ranked 27th against the run. |
 |
QB Jason Campbell (Washington)
– Partially due to the Joe Gibbs’
conservative ways and partially due to his own inaccuracy, Campbell
has thrown for less than 218 yards and two TDs in five of six games
this season. |
 |
WR Nate Burleson (Seattle)
– His kickoff return for a touchdown against the Rams was nice, but
unfortunately, it didn’t count in most fantasy leagues. Burleson has
caught two or fewer balls in three of the last four games, and with
Deion Branch (foot) and D.J. Hackett (ankle) likely to return after
the Seahawks’ bye, his role is likely to diminish further.
|
 |
RB Marc Bulger (St. Louis)
– The Rams are a mess. Their offensive line and their receiving corps
have been decimated by injuries. As a result, Bulger has been reduced
to a non-factor for fantasy teams. RB Steven Jackson is due back this
week, and the Rams’ remaining schedule is favorable. Nevertheless,
you shouldn’t start Bulger until he at least has one good game under
his belt. |
 |
WR Marcus Colston (New Orleans)
– He hasn’t surpassed 70 receiving yards in any game this season, and
six of his next eight games will be against defenses that rank 19th or
better against the pass. |
 |
QB Donovan McNabb
(Philadelphia) – Pick your excuse: his knee
is not 100 percent, he has a limited number of weapons, or his
offensive line is not protecting him. Whatever the reason, the bottom
line is that if you take away the Lions game, McNabb has three TDs and
two INTs in his five other contests. |
BEAR MARKET
 |
RB Jessie Chatman (Miami)
– With Ronnie Brown out for the year, Chatman should at least post
decent numbers for the rest of the season. |
 |
K Rob Bironas (Tennessee)
– I don’t have to tell you what he did on Sunday against the Texans,
and he’s available in most leagues. |
 |
WR Muhsin Muhammad (Chicago)
– With three touchdowns in the past four games, Muhammad is at least a
viable option in scoring-only leagues. |
 |
WR Roydell Williams (Tennessee)
– The third-year speedster has caught at least four balls in three of
his past five games. His 124-yard performance against the Texans on
Sunday will likely lead to more chances for Williams in future games.
|
 |
WR Brandon Stokely (Denver)
– With both Javon Walker and Rod Smith
sidelined by injuries and Brandon Marshall facing a possible
suspension for a DUI arrest, Stokely could be Jay Cutler’s primary
target sooner rather than later. |
 |
TE Tony Scheffler (Denver)
– Scheffler, a second-year tight end with good speed, is another
Denver receiver who could emerge due to the attrition of the receiving
corps. |
IDP ALERT
 |
DL Justin Tuck (NY Giants)
– Tuck, the all-time sack leader at Notre Dame, is coming into his own
in his third season. He has 33 tackles, seven sacks, and 1 fumble
recovery. |
 |
LB Bradie James (Dallas)
– With 26 tackles in his last three games, James has become a viable
starter at linebacker. |
 |
DB Nick Harper (Tennessee)
– Despite changing teams, Harper remains a tackling machine at
cornerback. He has 38 stops to go along with two picks and one fumble
recovery. |
 |
LB James Harrison (Pittsburgh)
– Harrison has done a fine job as Joey Porter’s replacement. He
leads the Steelers in tackles with 37 and also has three sacks to his
credit. |
STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER
 |
RB Kenny Watson (Cincinnati)
– He had a career performance against the Jets’ pathetic defense on
Sunday, but don’t count on him for the rest of the season. Rudi Johnson
could be back this week, and fellow RB Chris Perry should come off the
PUP list soon. |
 |
WR Roddy White (Atlanta)
– With Byron Leftwich starting at QB, White had his best game of the
season on Sunday (8 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD). Unfortunately,
Leftwich is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, and six of the
Falcons’ next eight games will be against defenses that rank 11th or
better against the pass. |
 |
RB Ernest Graham (Tampa Bay)
– OK, let’s not get too excited. Graham has had two big games against
the Rams and the Lions, and in between, he’s had three crappy efforts
against the Panthers, the Colts, and the Titans. The bottom line is
that this guy is a decent play against bad defenses. However, if
newly acquired Michael Bennett steals some of his between-the-20s
carries and Zack Crockett steals some of his goal-line carries,
Graham’s value will plummet quickly. |
 |
RB LenDale White (Tennessee)
– White had a 100-yard effort against the Texans on Sunday, but he was
hardly impressive, averaging a modest 3.9 yards per carry. White
received 27 carries only because Chris Brown was out due to an ankle
injury. Brown could be back as soon as this week, and rookie Chris
Henry, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry at Houston, may have worked
himself into the mix. |
STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER
 |
QB Carson Palmer (Cincinnati)
– Palmer is fine; he has just been slowed by the lack of talent around
him. Both of his offensive tackles have been nursing injuries – but
they’re getting healthy. The same goes for RB Rudi Johnson, who will
take pressure off the quarterback when he returns. Most importantly,
Chris Henry, perhaps the most talented No. 3 receiver in the league,
will return to the team in a couple of weeks. |
 |
RB Frank Gore (San Francisco)
– Gore averaged 6.3 yards per carry against the Giants on Sunday.
Unfortunately, he received just 14 carries. Gore finished the game
with 111 total yards and no touchdowns, and after the contest, he made
it clear that he was unhappy with the play calling. The talented
running back should fare better in the coming weeks – not just because
he’s calling for the ball but also because only one team remaining on
the 49ers’ schedule ranks better than 15th against run.
|
A FINAL THOUGHT
My final thought is that I have
written enough for today.
|
Tip Sheet Archive
|
|
| |
|