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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 8

By Richard Harris
October 23, 2007
 

We have basically reached the halfway point of the fantasy football season.  Hopefully, you’re still in contention.  I am in eight different leagues, and I am still alive in all of them.   

I spent some time studying the standings, the rosters, and the top performers in my eight leagues.  I was curious to see if there were any trends among the leaders and the basement dwellers.  If you look at the chart below, you’ll see that I have listed the record/total points, the studs, and the busts for each of my teams.  I did the same for the top team and the worst team in each league.  

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My Team’s Record/Pts

My Team’s Studs

My Team’s Busts

Top Team’s Record/Pts

Top Team’s Studs

Top Team’s Busts

Worst Team’s Record/Pts

Worst Team’s Studs

Worst Team’s Busts

1

6-1

Tony Romo & Brian Westbrook

Laurence Maroney

6-1

Tony Romo & Brian Westbrook

Laurence Maroney

2-5

Laveranues Coles

Drew Brees, Steven Jackson, & Javon Walker

2

931

Tony Romo and Larry Johnson

Deion Branch

988

Ronnie Brown, Chad Johnson, & Tony Gonzalez

Drew Brees

648

Larry Fitzgerald & Dallas Clark

Vince Young, Laurence Maroney, & Santana Moss

3

5-2

Larry Johnson & Clinton Portis

Donovan McNabb & Javon Walker

6-1

Tony Romo & Brian Westbrook

Cedric Benson

1-6

Ronnie Brown

Matt Leinart, Lee Evans, & Santana Moss

4

4-3

Tony Romo & Plaxico Burress

Laurence Maroney

5-2

Tom Brady & Laveranues Coles

Darrell Jackson

0-7

Adrian Peterson

Shaun Alexander & Donovan McNabb

5

4-3

Tom Brady

Steven Jackson & Reggie Brown

5-2

Randy Moss, Wes Welker, & Steve Smith

Donovan McNabb

1-6

LaDianian Tomlinson & Adrian Peterson

Marc Bulger & Marvin Harrison

6

2-5

Derrick Anderson, Brian Westbrook, & Willis McGahee

Donovan McNabb, Lee Evans, & Alge Crumpler

6-1

Tony Romo, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Jason Witten

Laurence Maroney

1-6

Carson Palmer & Reggie Wayne

Travis Henry & Tatum Bell

7

33-44

Peyton Manning, Laveranues Coles, & Tony Gonzalez

Ahman Green & Hines Ward

60-17

Tony Romo, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Braylon Edwards

Lee Evans

26-51

Carson Palmer & Minnesota Defense

Chester Taylor, Marvin Harrison, & Darrell Jackson

8

621

Clinton Portis and Tony Gonzalez

Marc Bulger, Vince Young, & Steven Jackson

807

LaDainian Tomlinson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, & Steve Smith

Todd Heap

602

Willis McGahee & Larry Fitzgerald

Shaun Alexander, Reggie Brown, & Darrell Jackson

Three players show up regularly in the “Stud” column for the first-place teams and my stronger teams:  QB Tony Romo, RB Brian Westbrook, and WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  In your average overall-performance leagues, the top six fantasy performers have been QB Tom Brady, WR Randy Moss, Romo, RB Ronnie Brown, Houshmandzadeh, and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (in that order).  Westbrook is ranked 13th.  So, why is it that most of the best teams in these leagues feature Romo, Westbrook, Houshmandzadeh, rather than Brady, Tomlinson, and Moss?   

The answer is probably draft position.  On average, Brady was taken three or four rounds before Romo, and Tomlinson was taken 6-12 picks ahead of Westbrook. (Moss and T.J. went roughly at the same time – around pick 40.)  Taking Westbrook late in the first round and/or Romo in the sixth round, rather than using the first overall pick on LT and/or taking Brady late in the second round, likely allowed Westbrook and Romo owners to draft better all-around teams.   

If you look at the last-place teams and my weaker squads, the player that shows up most in the “Bust” column is RB Steven Jackson.  The rest of the busts included Laurence Maroney, Shaun Alexander, Marc Bulger, and Lee Evans.  Once again, the difference between Jackson and the rest of the busts is draft position.   

Those who took Jackson at No. 2 overall didn’t pick again until late in the second round.  Those who drafted Maroney late in the first round picked early in the second round.  Assuming that the second-round picks for both groups are living up to their draft slot, the Maroney owners will find themselves in better shape than the Jackson owners.  That appears to be the case for the teams above, as the three of the four clubs with Maroney on the roster have a combined record of 16-5, with the fourth team bringing up the rear in the total points race of league No. 2.  The Jackson teams have a 6-8 record, and that doesn’t count my squad in league No. 8 that is close to the basement in a total points race.    

It’s not a surprise that owners who picked players that are outperforming their draft slot, such as Romo, are doing very well.  It also is not news that high-round flops, such as Jackson, are killing their fantasy teams.  However, what’s interesting about this data is that it indicates that it might be better to draft late in the first round, as opposed to early.  This is a subject that we’ll have to explore further near the end of the season.   

Moving on to injury news, Miami RB Ronnie Brown, one of the most pleasant surprises of the season, is done for the year due to an ACL injury.  He came into Week 7 leading the league in total yards from scrimmage.  What a shame.   

Other players who were injured in Week 7 included: QB Matt Schaub (ankle and hip), QB Tarvaris Jackson (broken finger), RB Frank Gore (ankle), QB Matt Hasselbeck (oblique), QB Byron Leftwich (ankle), QB Tony Romo (hamstring), WR Jerry Porter (shoulder), RB Cedric Benson (knee), TE Tony Scheffler (ankle), RB Travis Henry (ribs), QB David Garrard (ankle), and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee).  Of that group, Leftwich is the only player certain to miss some time (probably somewhere between 2-6 weeks).  Garrard will likely miss at least one game.  The rest of that group are probable/questionable for their next game.   

Now, let’s take a look at the market conditions.

STOCK RISING

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QB Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) – Big Ben, who is coming off a four-TD performance against Denver’s second-ranked pass defense, has never been a big yardage guy, but he’s usually good for at least one TD pass per game.  Better yet, five of his next six games will be against defenses that rank 24th or worse for touchdown passes allowed. 

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RB Kevin Jones (Detroit) – Jones had a solid game (110 total yards and 1 TD) against the Bucs.  More importantly, he kept Tatum Bell on the bench for an entire game. 

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WR Anquan Boldin (Arizona) – He may not be much of a passer, but in his four games this season, Boldin has averaged 7.5 receptions, 79 receiving yards and 1.3 TDs per game.  Working in Boldin’s favor for the rest of the season is the fact that QB Kurt Warner’s injured left elbow held up on Sunday, and four of the Cards’ next seven games will be against defenses that rank 27th or worse against the pass. 

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WR Laveranues Coles (NY Jets) – When he scores his next touchdown, Coles will tie a career high for scores in a season (7 in 2001).  With four of his next six games against defenses that rank 23rd or worse for TD passes allowed, Coles is basically a lock to reach and exceed that mark. 

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WR Ike Hilliard (Tampa Bay) – Can you win the Comeback Player of the Year award if you haven’t done anything for three straight seasons?  Well, Hilliard is on a major roll lately, catching an average of seven passes for 81 yards in his past four games. 

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K Josh Brown (Seattle) – Not much is going right in Seattle these days, but at least Brown can claim that he ranks eighth in the NFL in scoring with 53 points.  With four of his next six games against defenses that rank 22nd or worse for points allowed, look for the veteran kicker to remain hot. 

STOCK FALLING

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RB Shaun Alexander (Seattle) – Alexander makes this list for the second consecutive week because he did virtually nothing against a St. Louis defense that came into last week’s game ranked 27th against the run. 

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QB Jason Campbell (Washington) – Partially due to the Joe Gibbs’ conservative ways and partially due to his own inaccuracy, Campbell has thrown for less than 218 yards and two TDs in five of six games this season.

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WR Nate Burleson (Seattle) – His kickoff return for a touchdown against the Rams was nice, but unfortunately, it didn’t count in most fantasy leagues.  Burleson has caught two or fewer balls in three of the last four games, and with Deion Branch (foot) and D.J. Hackett (ankle) likely to return after the Seahawks’ bye, his role is likely to diminish further. 

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RB Marc Bulger (St. Louis) – The Rams are a mess.  Their offensive line and their receiving corps have been decimated by injuries.  As a result, Bulger has been reduced to a non-factor for fantasy teams.  RB Steven Jackson is due back this week, and the Rams’ remaining schedule is favorable.  Nevertheless, you shouldn’t start Bulger until he at least has one good game under his belt.

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WR Marcus Colston (New Orleans) – He hasn’t surpassed 70 receiving yards in any game this season, and six of his next eight games will be against defenses that rank 19th or better against the pass. 

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QB Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) – Pick your excuse:  his knee is not 100 percent, he has a limited number of weapons, or his offensive line is not protecting him.  Whatever the reason, the bottom line is that if you take away the Lions game, McNabb has three TDs and two INTs in his five other contests. 

BEAR MARKET

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RB Jessie Chatman (Miami) – With Ronnie Brown out for the year, Chatman should at least post decent numbers for the rest of the season. 

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K Rob Bironas (Tennessee) – I don’t have to tell you what he did on Sunday against the Texans, and he’s available in most leagues.

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WR Muhsin Muhammad (Chicago) – With three touchdowns in the past four games, Muhammad is at least a viable option in scoring-only leagues. 

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WR Roydell Williams (Tennessee) – The third-year speedster has caught at least four balls in three of his past five games.  His 124-yard performance against the Texans on Sunday will likely lead to more chances for Williams in future games. 

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WR Brandon Stokely (Denver) – With both Javon Walker and Rod Smith sidelined by injuries and Brandon Marshall facing a possible suspension for a DUI arrest, Stokely could be Jay Cutler’s primary target sooner rather than later.

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TE Tony Scheffler (Denver) – Scheffler, a second-year tight end with good speed, is another Denver receiver who could emerge due to the attrition of the receiving corps. 

IDP ALERT

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DL Justin Tuck (NY Giants) – Tuck, the all-time sack leader at Notre Dame, is coming into his own in his third season.  He has 33 tackles, seven sacks, and 1 fumble recovery. 

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LB Bradie James (Dallas) – With 26 tackles in his last three games, James has become a viable starter at linebacker. 

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DB Nick Harper (Tennessee) – Despite changing teams, Harper remains a tackling machine at cornerback.  He has 38 stops to go along with two picks and one fumble recovery. 

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LB James Harrison (Pittsburgh) – Harrison has done a fine job as Joey Porter’s replacement.  He leads the Steelers in tackles with 37 and also has three sacks to his credit.

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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RB Kenny Watson (Cincinnati) – He had a career performance against the Jets’ pathetic defense on Sunday, but don’t count on him for the rest of the season.  Rudi Johnson could be back this week, and fellow RB Chris Perry should come off the PUP list soon. 

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WR Roddy White (Atlanta) – With Byron Leftwich starting at QB, White had his best game of the season on Sunday (8 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD).  Unfortunately, Leftwich is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, and six of the Falcons’ next eight games will be against defenses that rank 11th or better against the pass. 

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RB Ernest Graham (Tampa Bay) – OK, let’s not get too excited.  Graham has had two big games against the Rams and the Lions, and in between, he’s had three crappy efforts against the Panthers, the Colts, and the Titans.  The bottom line is that this guy is a decent play against bad defenses.  However, if newly acquired Michael Bennett steals some of his between-the-20s carries and Zack Crockett steals some of his goal-line carries, Graham’s value will plummet quickly. 

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RB LenDale White (Tennessee) – White had a 100-yard effort against the Texans on Sunday, but he was hardly impressive, averaging a modest 3.9 yards per carry.  White received 27 carries only because Chris Brown was out due to an ankle injury.  Brown could be back as soon as this week, and rookie Chris Henry, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry at Houston, may have worked himself into the mix. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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QB Carson Palmer (Cincinnati) – Palmer is fine; he has just been slowed by the lack of talent around him.  Both of his offensive tackles have been nursing injuries – but they’re getting healthy.  The same goes for RB Rudi Johnson, who will take pressure off the quarterback when he returns.  Most importantly, Chris Henry, perhaps the most talented No. 3 receiver in the league, will return to the team in a couple of weeks. 

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RB Frank Gore (San Francisco) – Gore averaged 6.3 yards per carry against the Giants on Sunday.  Unfortunately, he received just 14 carries.  Gore finished the game with 111 total yards and no touchdowns, and after the contest, he made it clear that he was unhappy with the play calling.  The talented running back should fare better in the coming weeks – not just because he’s calling for the ball but also because only one team remaining on the 49ers’ schedule ranks better than 15th against run. 

A FINAL THOUGHT 

My final thought is that I have written enough for today. 

 

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