|
| |

Heading into Week 10
|
|
By Richard Harris |
| November 7, 2007 |
| |
|
Adrian Peterson,
Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson … that name is becoming engraved on my
brain.
Peterson is the most talked about
player in the league, and with good reason. He has done some
unprecedented things, and he has done them despite the fact that the
Vikings have no passing attack, meaning that opponents should be able to
put eight and nine men in “the box” with great confidence.
On Sunday against the Chargers, who
came into the game ranked seventh against the run,
Peterson ran for an NFL-record 296 yards and three TDs. That
performance puts him on a pace to break Eric Dickerson’s
rookie record of 1,808 yards in 1983 and also puts him within range of
Dickerson’s 2,105 yards in 1984, which is the most in NFL history.
Peterson’s record-breaking efforts
have prompted many observers to call the rookie the top back in the
league, and some have gone as far as to say that he’s one of the best of
all-time. I remain a bit skeptical, however.
When you watch Peterson run on his
long gains, you’ll notice that he usually has a huge hole to run
through, and he rarely gets touched by the defenders. Part of the
credit for his success has to go to his skill set – he has superior
vision, he hits the hole quickly, and he has breakaway speed. He also
runs with power, but that usually doesn’t come into play because there
is often no one around him.
In my opinion, the three greatest
backs of all-time were Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and
Walter Payton. Brown usually obliterated defenders with his power.
Sanders faked defenders out of their shoes by changing directions in a
split second. Peyton was somewhere in between, possessing a rare
combination of coordination and strength. What all three had in common
was that they made a lot of their yards on their own.
I won’t deny that Peterson is a
fantastic back, but what I am saying is that it appears to me that he’s
getting a lot of help from his blockers. If LaDainian Tomlinson
or Larry Johnson were playing for Minnesota, you might be seeing
similar results from them. Then again, you might not.
From a fantasy perspective, you
could care less as to why Peterson is racking up the yards and scores.
All you need to do is put him your lineup, sit back, and enjoy.
Moving on to injury news, those who
were banged up in Week 9 included: RB Ryan Grant (concussion),
WR Santana Moss (heel), TE Dallas Clark (concussion), WR
Dwayne Bowe (hamstring), QB Tarvaris Jackson (concussion),
QB David Carr (concussion), RB Shaun Alexander (knee), RB
Jerious Norwood (ankle), RB Travis Henry (knee), WR
Brandon Marshall (foot), QB Jay Cutler (leg), WR Chad
Johnson (neck), RB Willis McGahee (concussion), RB Willie
Parker (knee), and QB Ben Roethlisberger (hip). So far, Carr
is the only one to be officially ruled out for Week 10.
The biggest injury was suffered by
Kansas City RB Larry Johnson. Reports have been circulating that
he’s done for the season due to a broken foot. The Chiefs are calling
the injury a foot sprain and saying that he will miss at least one
game. Stay tuned.
Let’s take a look at the market.
STOCK RISING
 |
RB LenDale White (Tennessee)
– With fellow RB Chris Brown always nursing an injury of some sort and
rookie Chris Henry facing a possible suspension, White is looking
rather valuable at this time. The second-year pro from USC has strung
together three straight 100-yard games, and he has scored a TD in
three of his past four. You also have to love the fact that he won’t
face a run defense ranked higher than 14th for the rest of the season.
|
 |
QB Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle)
– Hasselbeck’s big performance against the Browns’ shaky defense was
expected, but there are other reasons to like him. His receiving
corps is getting healthy – D.J. Hackett returned last week and Deion
Branch (foot) could be back this week – and with the Hawks’ running
game going nowhere, you can expect Hasselbeck to continue to air it
out. |
 |
RB Reggie Bush (New Orleans)
– The entire New Orleans offense is starting to click. QB Drew Brees
and WR Marcus Colston are in the midst of very hot streaks, leaving
Bush’s efforts to go somewhat unnoticed. The second-year back has had
at least 113 total yards in four of his last five games, and in his
last four, he’s scored three TDs and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
The Saints’ remaining schedule is much more favorable for running the
football, as opposed to throwing it. In fact, their next six games
will be against defenses that rank higher against the pass than the
run. |
 |
RB Jamal Lewis (Cleveland)
– If a running back gains just 37 yards on 20 carries, he usually
won’t earn much praise, but in the case of Lewis, who scored a
career-high four TDs against the Seahawks, I’ll make an exception.
Not only did he make frequent visits to the end zone on Sunday, but he
also caught a season-high four balls for 67 yards. The veteran back
might find yards on the ground hard to come by over the next two weeks
vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but after that, he won’t face a run
defense that is ranked higher than 18th for the rest of the season.
|
 |
WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay)
– Veteran WR Donald Driver leads the Packers
with 44 receptions and 539 receiving yards, but Jennings has been the
team’s top touchdown maker, scoring six times in six games this
season. I don’t know if he’ll remain this hot, but the lack of a
running game and a schedule that favors the pass bodes well for the
second-year pro out of Western Michigan. |
 |
K Jason Hanson (Detroit)
– I have always favored kickers that play on playoff-bound teams, and
at 6-2, the Lions appear to be headed to the postseason. Hanson has
averaged 12 points in his past three games, and as a result, he is
tied for seventh in the NFL in scoring with 68 points. |
 |
LB David Harris (NY Jets)
– Defenders rarely make it this far up the “Tip Sheet,” but how can
you ignore the fact that this rookie has racked up 41 tackles in two
starts? Most linemen don’t get that many tackles in a season!
|
STOCK FALLING
 |
RB Tatum Bell (Detroit)
– After complaining about a reduced role, Bell has not played in three
straight games and was on the inactive list for the past two. T.J.
Duckett has been effective as Kevin Jones’ backup, and I would expect
the former Falcon to keep that job for the rest of the season. |
 |
QB Phillip Rivers (San Diego)
– Rivers has thrown for less than 198 yards in three straight games,
with three TDs and two INTs over that span. Sunday’s performance
against Minnesota’s 31st-ranked pass defense was particularly
disappointing. And just think, the Chargers once had a guy named
Brees on their roster. |
 |
WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego)
– The combination of a struggling Rivers and a new addition at wideout
(Chris Chambers) appears to have rendered Jackson worthless. He has
caught just two balls in his past three games. |
 |
K Shayne Graham (Cincinnati)
– When your defense is giving up touchdowns by the handful, your
offense often cannot afford to settle for field goals. Such is life
for Graham this season in Cincinnati. He currently ranks 15th in
scoring with 56 points, and he has not scored more than eight points
in any game this season. |
 |
RB LaMont Jordan (Oakland)
– Through four games, Jordan had 424 rushing yards and trailed only
Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker for the league lead. He cooled off
considerably after that, but I predicted last week that he would pick
it up due to a favorable schedule. Well, you can scrap that idea. On
Sunday against Houston, Jordan did not start and received just four
carries, while Justin Fargas rushed 23 times for 104 yards and a
score. Coach Lane Kiffin has since said that Fargas will remain the
starting tailback until further notice. |
 |
WR Steve Smith (Carolina)
– I think that we all know by now that David Carr just doesn’t have
what it takes to play QB in the NFL. He’s having the same type of
problems that he had in Houston, and Smith is paying the price. In
his past six games, Smith has been held to fewer than 48 receiving
yards five times. The lone exception was Week 6, when Vinny
Testaverde started for an injured Carr. I hate to say it, but Smith
owners have to be ecstatic that Testaverde will start for Carr this
week. |
BEAR MARKET
 |
RB Justin Fargas (Oakland)
– See LaMont Jordan. |
 |
WR Chris Henry (Cincinnati)
– He’s been practicing for two weeks, and assuming that he doesn’t get
into any more trouble, which is a risky assumption, Henry will see his
first action of the season on Sunday. With 15 touchdown catches in 27
career games, he would be a great pickup, especially in scoring-only
leagues. |
 |
QB J.P. Losman (Buffalo)
– You have to temper your expectations because Losman’s big game on
Sunday did come against a hapless Cincinnati defense, but with four of
his next six games being against teams that rank 23rd or worse in
total yards allowed, Losman will have more favorable matchups to
exploit. |
 |
RB Maurice Morris (Seattle)
– Due to injuries and perhaps age, Shaun Alexander has been anything
but effective this season. Alexander’s latest injury, a sprained
knee, could open the door for Morris to get increased playing time.
Morris did not set the world on fire when filling in for Alexander
last season, but he wasn’t a total bust, either. |
 |
WR D.J. Hackett (Seattle)
– Hackett has finally recovered from the sprained ankle that had him
sidelined since Week 1. He returned to the starting lineup last week
and caught six balls for 58 yards and a TD against the Browns. The
third-year receiver appears to be picking up where he left off last
season. In the final four regular-season games, he had 19 receptions
for 291 yards and two scores. |
 |
RB Priest Holmes (Kansas City)
– Depending on how long LJ is out, the 34-year-old Holmes could be of
some value. I wouldn’t get too excited, however. If Johnson was
struggling behind the Chiefs’ suspect offensive line, Holmes likely
will, too. |
 |
Detroit Defense
– The Lions have allowed just 30 points in their last three games, and
on the season, they quietly rank fifth in sacks with 24 and first in
interceptions with 14. |
 |
K Rian Lindell (Buffalo)
– Lindell has scored 35 points in his last three games, and he has
that aforementioned soft Buffalo schedule working in his favor.
|
IDP ALERT
 |
DL Albert Haynesworth
(Tennessee) – Haynesworth has played on a
Pro-Bowl level this season, and he is one of the primary reasons that
the Titans top the league in run defense and are allowing less than 16
points per game. He has also put up nice personal stats, registering
30 tackles and a team-high five sacks. |
 |
LB Angelo Crowell (Buffalo)
– With 31 tackles in his last three games, Crowell has climbed to
fifth in the league in that category with a total of 72. |
 |
DB Jermaine Phillips (Tampa
Bay) – This hard-hitting safety is one of
the main reasons for the Bucs’ resurgence on defense. Phillips is one
of the top tacklers (53) among DBs, and he also has three picks on the
season. |
 |
LB Gary Brackett (Indianapolis)
– By holding the Pats in check for most of Sunday’s game, the Colts
defense made a believer out of me. The unit is fast and swarms to the
ball. Brackett had seven tackles and an INT in the loss, and he
currently leads the team with 60 stops on the season. |
 |
LB Matt Wilhelm (San Diego)
– Wilhelm got off too a slow start this season, missing two of the
first four games due to injury. Since returning to the starting
lineup, he has averaged eight tackles per game. |
STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER
 |
RB Ron Dayne (Houston)
– Ah, my favorite whipping boy, Dayne is usually good for four
100-yard efforts per season, two of which come in the exhibition
games. With Ahman Green slowed by a knee injury, Dayne came off the
bench and ran for 122 yards and a TD against Oakland’s 30th-ranked run
defense. In terms of yards per carry, the Raiders actually have the
league’s worst run defense, allowing a whopping 5.1 per attempt.
What’s funny is that they were allowing 5.3 per carry before they
faced the Texans. |
 |
WR Bobby Engram (Seattle)
– Engram helped a lot of fantasy teams last week with his 14 catches
for 139 yards and a TD, but he won’t continue on that pace with Deion
Branch soon to return and D. J. Hackett back in the starting lineup.
|
 |
RB Clinton Portis (Washington)
– With 196 yards and a TD on 36 carries against the Jets’ 29th-ranked
run defense, Portis broke the century mark for the first time this
season. He won’t have it that easy very many more times this season.
He’ll face six defenses ranked 17th or better against the run,
including four top-10 units, in the Skins’ remaining eight games.
|
STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER
 |
RB Edgerrin James (Arizona)
– I would not be too discouraged by Edge’s meager numbers against
Tampa Bay. He still ranks eighth in the league with 618 rushing
yards, and his second-half schedule is very favorable. He’ll face
five teams that rank 23rd or worse against the run, and none of his
other three opponents (Detroit, Seattle, and New Orleans) can be
considered the second coming of the Doomsday Defense. |
 |
WR Roy Williams (Detroit)
– Williams is in a fairly prolonged slump. He hasn’t scored since
Week 3, and he has caught more than three balls just once in his last
four games. However, No. 11 is too talented to stay down for much
longer, especially when you consider the Lions’ schedule. After the
Lions’ next two games, he will close the season against six teams that
rank 17th or worse against the pass. |
 |
RB Laurence Maroney (New
England) – The Patriots are averaging nearly
40 points per game, so how is it that Maroney has no bloody touchdowns
this season? Well, for one, he’s been hurt for much of the time, but
now, he’s healthy and averaging a solid 4.7 per carry. Another reason
for his disappointing numbers is that the Pats have had so much
success through the air that they haven’t had much of a need to run
the ball. Will that trend continue as the cold and snowy weather
creeps into New England? Probably not, and with goal-line runner
Sammy Morris (chest) done for the season, Maroney is bound to find the
end zone at least a few times in November and December. |
A FINAL THOUGHT
I think that the officials have too
much say in the outcome of NFL games. What bugs me the most is the
unnecessary judgment calls. The league should change the rules to be as
“black and white” as possible and take the game out of the officials’
hands.
Here are a few examples:
1) Get
rid of the Tuck Rule and the Forward Motion Rule. If a quarterback is
hit while the ball is in his hands and the ball comes out, then it is a
fumble. It’s as simple as that. There would be no more “I think his
arm was going forward,” “I think he was trying pull the ball back in,”
or “I think he was trying to scratch his butt.”
2) Pass
interference calls can drastically change the outcome of games, and
putting the ball at the spot of the foul based on someone’s judgment is
too harsh. There needs to be two types of pass interference calls –
intentional pass interference (put the ball at the spot of the foul) and
unintentional pass interference (15 yards and a first down, as in
college football).
3) The
worst rule of all is the Force Out Rule. Is there another rule in
sports where an official determines the outcome of a play based on what
might have happened? If a defender can push a receiver out of bounds
(which is legal) before he gets his feet down, then that is a good
defensive play as far as I am concerned. It’s total BS to let an
official decide if a receiver would have come down in bounds if the
defender wasn’t there. He was there, and the receiver didn’t get his
feet inside the lines. And if you think that this rule change would
give defenders too much of an advantage, then the rule can also be
changed so that a receiver has to get only one foot down in bounds for
the reception to count (as in college). |
|
|
Tip Sheet Archive
|
|
| |
|