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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 10

By Richard Harris
November 7, 2007
 

Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson …  that name is becoming engraved on my brain.   

Peterson is the most talked about player in the league, and with good reason.  He has done some unprecedented things, and he has done them despite the fact that the Vikings have no passing attack, meaning that opponents should be able to put eight and nine men in “the box” with great confidence.   

On Sunday against the Chargers, who came into the game ranked seventh against the run, Peterson ran for an NFL-record 296 yards and three TDs.  That performance puts him on a pace to break Eric Dickerson’s rookie record of 1,808 yards in 1983 and also puts him within range of Dickerson’s 2,105 yards in 1984, which is the most in NFL history. 

Peterson’s record-breaking efforts have prompted many observers to call the rookie the top back in the league, and some have gone as far as to say that he’s one of the best of all-time.  I remain a bit skeptical, however. 

When you watch Peterson run on his long gains, you’ll notice that he usually has a huge hole to run through, and he rarely gets touched by the defenders.  Part of the credit for his success has to go to his skill set – he has superior vision, he hits the hole quickly, and he has breakaway speed.  He also runs with power, but that usually doesn’t come into play because there is often no one around him.   

In my opinion, the three greatest backs of all-time were Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and Walter Payton.  Brown usually obliterated defenders with his power.  Sanders faked defenders out of their shoes by changing directions in a split second.  Peyton was somewhere in between, possessing a rare combination of coordination and strength.  What all three had in common was that they made a lot of their yards on their own.    

I won’t deny that Peterson is a fantastic back, but what I am saying is that it appears to me that he’s getting a lot of help from his blockers.  If LaDainian Tomlinson or Larry Johnson were playing for Minnesota, you might be seeing similar results from them.  Then again, you might not.   

From a fantasy perspective, you could care less as to why Peterson is racking up the yards and scores.  All you need to do is put him your lineup, sit back, and enjoy.   

Moving on to injury news, those who were banged up in Week 9 included:  RB Ryan Grant (concussion), WR Santana Moss (heel), TE Dallas Clark (concussion), WR Dwayne Bowe (hamstring), QB Tarvaris Jackson (concussion), QB David Carr (concussion), RB Shaun Alexander (knee), RB Jerious Norwood (ankle), RB Travis Henry (knee), WR Brandon Marshall (foot), QB Jay Cutler (leg), WR Chad Johnson (neck), RB Willis McGahee (concussion), RB Willie Parker (knee), and QB Ben Roethlisberger (hip).  So far, Carr is the only one to be officially ruled out for Week 10.   

The biggest injury was suffered by Kansas City RB Larry Johnson.  Reports have been circulating that he’s done for the season due to a broken foot.  The Chiefs are calling the injury a foot sprain and saying that he will miss at least one game.  Stay tuned.   

Let’s take a look at the market. 

STOCK RISING

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RB LenDale White (Tennessee) – With fellow RB Chris Brown always nursing an injury of some sort and rookie Chris Henry facing a possible suspension, White is looking rather valuable at this time.  The second-year pro from USC has strung together three straight 100-yard games, and he has scored a TD in three of his past four.  You also have to love the fact that he won’t face a run defense ranked higher than 14th for the rest of the season.

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QB Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle) – Hasselbeck’s big performance against the Browns’ shaky defense was expected, but there are other reasons to like him.  His receiving corps is getting healthy – D.J. Hackett returned last week and Deion Branch (foot) could be back this week – and with the Hawks’ running game going nowhere, you can expect Hasselbeck to continue to air it out. 

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RB Reggie Bush (New Orleans) – The entire New Orleans offense is starting to click.  QB Drew Brees and WR Marcus Colston are in the midst of very hot streaks, leaving Bush’s efforts to go somewhat unnoticed.  The second-year back has had at least 113 total yards in four of his last five games, and in his last four, he’s scored three TDs and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints’ remaining schedule is much more favorable for running the football, as opposed to throwing it.  In fact, their next six games will be against defenses that rank higher against the pass than the run. 

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RB Jamal Lewis (Cleveland) – If a running back gains just 37 yards on 20 carries, he usually won’t earn much praise, but in the case of Lewis, who scored a career-high four TDs against the Seahawks, I’ll make an exception.  Not only did he make frequent visits to the end zone on Sunday, but he also caught a season-high four balls for 67 yards.  The veteran back might find yards on the ground hard to come by over the next two weeks vs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but after that, he won’t face a run defense that is ranked higher than 18th for the rest of the season. 

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WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay) – Veteran WR Donald Driver leads the Packers with 44 receptions and 539 receiving yards, but Jennings has been the team’s top touchdown maker, scoring six times in six games this season.  I don’t know if he’ll remain this hot, but the lack of a running game and a schedule that favors the pass bodes well for the second-year pro out of Western Michigan. 

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K Jason Hanson (Detroit) – I have always favored kickers that play on playoff-bound teams, and at 6-2, the Lions appear to be headed to the postseason.  Hanson has averaged 12 points in his past three games, and as a result, he is tied for seventh in the NFL in scoring with 68 points. 

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LB David Harris (NY Jets) – Defenders rarely make it this far up the “Tip Sheet,” but how can you ignore the fact that this rookie has racked up 41 tackles in two starts?  Most linemen don’t get that many tackles in a season! 

STOCK FALLING

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RB Tatum Bell (Detroit) – After complaining about a reduced role, Bell has not played in three straight games and was on the inactive list for the past two.  T.J. Duckett has been effective as Kevin Jones’ backup, and I would expect the former Falcon to keep that job for the rest of the season.   

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QB Phillip Rivers (San Diego) – Rivers has thrown for less than 198 yards in three straight games, with three TDs and two INTs over that span.  Sunday’s performance against Minnesota’s 31st-ranked pass defense was particularly disappointing.  And just think, the Chargers once had a guy named Brees on their roster. 

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WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego) – The combination of a struggling Rivers and a new addition at wideout (Chris Chambers) appears to have rendered Jackson worthless.  He has caught just two balls in his past three games. 

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K Shayne Graham (Cincinnati) – When your defense is giving up touchdowns by the handful, your offense often cannot afford to settle for field goals.  Such is life for Graham this season in Cincinnati.  He currently ranks 15th in scoring with 56 points, and he has not scored more than eight points in any game this season. 

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RB LaMont Jordan (Oakland) – Through four games, Jordan had 424 rushing yards and trailed only Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker for the league lead.  He cooled off considerably after that, but I predicted last week that he would pick it up due to a favorable schedule.  Well, you can scrap that idea.  On Sunday against Houston, Jordan did not start and received just four carries, while Justin Fargas rushed 23 times for 104 yards and a score.  Coach Lane Kiffin has since said that Fargas will remain the starting tailback until further notice.

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WR Steve Smith (Carolina) – I think that we all know by now that David Carr just doesn’t have what it takes to play QB in the NFL.  He’s having the same type of problems that he had in Houston, and Smith is paying the price.  In his past six games, Smith has been held to fewer than 48 receiving yards five times.  The lone exception was Week 6, when Vinny Testaverde started for an injured Carr.  I hate to say it, but Smith owners have to be ecstatic that Testaverde will start for Carr this week. 

BEAR MARKET

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RB Justin Fargas (Oakland) – See LaMont Jordan. 

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WR Chris Henry (Cincinnati) – He’s been practicing for two weeks, and assuming that he doesn’t get into any more trouble, which is a risky assumption, Henry will see his first action of the season on Sunday.  With 15 touchdown catches in 27 career games, he would be a great pickup, especially in scoring-only leagues. 

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QB J.P. Losman (Buffalo) – You have to temper your expectations because Losman’s big game on Sunday did come against a hapless Cincinnati defense, but with four of his next six games being against teams that rank 23rd or worse in total yards allowed, Losman will have more favorable matchups to exploit. 

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RB Maurice Morris (Seattle) – Due to injuries and perhaps age, Shaun Alexander has been anything but effective this season.  Alexander’s latest injury, a sprained knee, could open the door for Morris to get increased playing time.  Morris did not set the world on fire when filling in for Alexander last season, but he wasn’t a total bust, either. 

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WR D.J. Hackett (Seattle) – Hackett has finally recovered from the sprained ankle that had him sidelined since Week 1.  He returned to the starting lineup last week and caught six balls for 58 yards and a TD against the Browns.  The third-year receiver appears to be picking up where he left off last season.  In the final four regular-season games, he had 19 receptions for 291 yards and two scores. 

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RB Priest Holmes (Kansas City) – Depending on how long LJ is out, the 34-year-old Holmes could be of some value.  I wouldn’t get too excited, however.  If Johnson was struggling behind the Chiefs’ suspect offensive line, Holmes likely will, too.  

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Detroit Defense – The Lions have allowed just 30 points in their last three games, and on the season, they quietly rank fifth in sacks with 24 and first in interceptions with 14. 

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K Rian Lindell (Buffalo) – Lindell has scored 35 points in his last three games, and he has that aforementioned soft Buffalo schedule working in his favor. 

IDP ALERT

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DL Albert Haynesworth (Tennessee) – Haynesworth has played on a Pro-Bowl level this season, and he is one of the primary reasons that the Titans top the league in run defense and are allowing less than 16 points per game.  He has also put up nice personal stats, registering 30 tackles and a team-high five sacks. 

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LB Angelo Crowell (Buffalo) – With 31 tackles in his last three games, Crowell has climbed to fifth in the league in that category with a total of 72. 

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DB Jermaine Phillips (Tampa Bay) – This hard-hitting safety is one of the main reasons for the Bucs’ resurgence on defense.  Phillips is one of the top tacklers (53) among DBs, and he also has three picks on the season. 

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LB Gary Brackett (Indianapolis) – By holding the Pats in check for most of Sunday’s game, the Colts defense made a believer out of me.  The unit is fast and swarms to the ball.  Brackett had seven tackles and an INT in the loss, and he currently leads the team with 60 stops on the season. 

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LB Matt Wilhelm (San Diego) – Wilhelm got off too a slow start this season, missing two of the first four games due to injury.  Since returning to the starting lineup, he has averaged eight tackles per game. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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RB Ron Dayne (Houston) – Ah, my favorite whipping boy, Dayne is usually good for four 100-yard efforts per season, two of which come in the exhibition games.  With Ahman Green slowed by a knee injury, Dayne came off the bench and ran for 122 yards and a TD against Oakland’s 30th-ranked run defense.  In terms of yards per carry, the Raiders actually have the league’s worst run defense, allowing a whopping 5.1 per attempt.  What’s funny is that they were allowing 5.3 per carry before they faced the Texans. 

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WR Bobby Engram (Seattle) – Engram helped a lot of fantasy teams last week with his 14 catches for 139 yards and a TD, but he won’t continue on that pace with Deion Branch soon to return and D. J. Hackett back in the starting lineup. 

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RB Clinton Portis (Washington) – With 196 yards and a TD on 36 carries against the Jets’ 29th-ranked run defense, Portis broke the century mark for the first time this season.  He won’t have it that easy very many more times this season.  He’ll face six defenses ranked 17th or better against the run, including four top-10 units, in the Skins’ remaining eight games. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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RB Edgerrin James (Arizona) – I would not be too discouraged by Edge’s meager numbers against Tampa Bay.  He still ranks eighth in the league with 618 rushing yards, and his second-half schedule is very favorable.  He’ll face five teams that rank 23rd or worse against the run, and none of his other three opponents (Detroit, Seattle, and New Orleans) can be considered the second coming of the Doomsday Defense. 

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WR Roy Williams (Detroit) – Williams is in a fairly prolonged slump.  He hasn’t scored since Week 3, and he has caught more than three balls just once in his last four games.  However, No. 11 is too talented to stay down for much longer, especially when you consider the Lions’ schedule.  After the Lions’ next two games, he will close the season against six teams that rank 17th or worse against the pass. 

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RB Laurence Maroney (New England) – The Patriots are averaging nearly 40 points per game, so how is it that Maroney has no bloody touchdowns this season?  Well, for one, he’s been hurt for much of the time, but now, he’s healthy and averaging a solid 4.7 per carry.  Another reason for his disappointing numbers is that the Pats have had so much success through the air that they haven’t had much of a need to run the ball.  Will that trend continue as the cold and snowy weather creeps into New England?  Probably not, and with goal-line runner Sammy Morris (chest) done for the season, Maroney is bound to find the end zone at least a few times in November and December. 

A FINAL THOUGHT

I think that the officials have too much say in the outcome of NFL games.  What bugs me the most is the unnecessary judgment calls.  The league should change the rules to be as “black and white” as possible and take the game out of the officials’ hands.   

Here are a few examples: 

1)  Get rid of the Tuck Rule and the Forward Motion Rule.  If a quarterback is hit while the ball is in his hands and the ball comes out, then it is a fumble.  It’s as simple as that.  There would be no more “I think his arm was going forward,” “I think he was trying pull the ball back in,” or “I think he was trying to scratch his butt.”   

2)  Pass interference calls can drastically change the outcome of games, and putting the ball at the spot of the foul based on someone’s judgment is too harsh.  There needs to be two types of pass interference calls – intentional pass interference (put the ball at the spot of the foul) and unintentional pass interference (15 yards and a first down, as in college football).   

3)  The worst rule of all is the Force Out Rule.  Is there another rule in sports where an official determines the outcome of a play based on what might have happened?  If a defender can push a receiver out of bounds (which is legal) before he gets his feet down, then that is a good defensive play as far as I am concerned.  It’s total BS to let an official decide if a receiver would have come down in bounds if the defender wasn’t there.  He was there, and the receiver didn’t get his feet inside the lines.  And if you think that this rule change would give defenders too much of an advantage, then the rule can also be changed so that a receiver has to get only one foot down in bounds for the reception to count (as in college).  

 

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