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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 12

By Richard Harris
November 21, 2007
 

Turkey Day is nearly here, and we are in the stretch run of the fantasy season.  In many national high-stakes leagues, where you are competing against hundreds of people, the playoffs will actually begin this week, but in most head-to-head leagues, the playoffs won’t start until Week 15, leaving three games left to play in the regular-season.    

I know that the free-agent market looks fairly bare at this point in time, but league rules permitting, don’t stop making roster moves (trades and drop/adds) if you’re still in the playoff hunt.  The NFL is always in flux, and you may be able to acquire a valuable player or two in the final few weeks.  For example, if you have a dud, such as QB David Carr or RB Dominic Rhodes, on your roster, why not cut him for a player with more upside, such as QB Brodie Croyle or RB Andre Hall.  Also, don’t forget about defenses and kickers.  It’s better to have a second option at those positions so you can take advantage of favorable matchups, rather than keeping a skill player like Carr, who you’re never going to use.   

The players who were banged up in Week 11 included:  WR Santonio Holmes (ankle), WR Laveranues Coles (ankle), Matt Hasselbeck (ribs), QB Byron Leftwich (tailbone), RB Ryan Grant (ankle), RB Brandon Jacobs (hamstring), RB Laurence Maroney (foot), RB Kevin Faulk (concussion), QB Donovan McNabb (thumb and ankle), WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (hip), WR Patrick Crayton (ankle), TE Alge Crumpler (foot), and RB Selvin Young (knee).   

As of now, it appears that Holmes and Coles will miss at least one game with high ankle sprains.  Joey Harrington will start at least one week for the injured Leftwich.  Hasselbeck will likely miss some practice time this week, but he is expected to play on Sunday.  The rest of the group is questionable for Week 12. 

Let’s take a look at the market. 

STOCK RISING 

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WR D.J. Hackett (Seattle) – It’s difficult to say who is the number-one receiver in Seattle these days, but it is safe to assume that Matt Hasselbeck enjoys throwing to Hackett.  Even with fellow WR Deion Branch back in the starting lineup last week, Hackett continued on his torrid pace, finishing with nine receptions and scoring in his third consecutive game.  Since returning from a high ankle sprain three weeks ago, the third-year receiver has caught 23 balls for 295 yards.   

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QB Jon Kitna (Detroit) – In their past two games, the Lions have run the ball 19 times and passed the ball 88 times.  This strategy has not led to any wins, but it has helped Kitna’s fantasy stats.  In those two games, he passed for 671 yards, with three touchdowns and five interceptions.  As much as the Lions might want more balance in their attack, their schedule will likely dictate that they continue to have a pass-happy approach for the rest of the season.  All six of their remaining opponents rank higher against the run than the pass.  The average rankings of those teams is 10th vs. the run and 21st vs. the pass.   

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RB Chester Taylor (Minnesota) – He’ll get at least one more start, and you know that the Vikings will give him 20-plus carries.   

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QB Matt Schaub (Houston) – Schaub’s favorite target, Andre Johnson, is back, and while he was out, fellow wideouts Kevin Walter and Andre’ Davis proved that they are capable players.  In the three games that Johnson has started this season, Schaub has passed for an average of 248 yards, with a total of five TDs and only one INT.   

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QB Vince Young (Tennessee) – With the Tennessee defense slipping lately (mostly due to injuries), Young has had to do more than hand off to his running backs.  In the past two games, he has passed for 562 yards and two scores and rushed for 126 yards and one TD.  Young will likely continue to carry his team over the next three weeks vs. Cincinnati, Houston and San Diego, three teams that can score points but don’t defend the pass very well.   

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WR Santana Moss (Washington) – Nagged by injuries for most of the season, it took Moss 11 weeks to record his first 100-yard game of the season and to score his first TD of the season.  Hopefully, he can remain healthy, and if he does, he should put up solid numbers down the stretch.  QB Jason Campbell has finally started to get the ball to his wide receivers, and the Redskins’ remaining schedule is favorable for throwing the football.  Four of their last six opponents rank 16th or worse against the pass. 

STOCK FALLING

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RB Rudi Johnson (Cincinnati) – Johnson has apparently recovered from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss three games earlier this season, but you wouldn’t know it by his performance.  Since returning to the starting lineup three weeks ago, he has rushed for just 82 yards and no scores on 39 carries, which averages out to a paltry 2.1 yards per attempt.  Kenny Watson has outperformed Johnson this season, and the backup RB will likely get as many, if not more, carries than Johnson in the remaining six games.   

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WR Kevin Curtis (Philadelphia) – Curtis has averaged a modest 56 receiving yards and scored no TDs in his past five games, and if QB Donovan McNabb (thumb and ankle) misses a significant amount of time, the wide receiver’s numbers are unlikely to improve.   

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K David Akers (Philadelphia) – Akers has scored just 13 points in his last three games, and with the Eagles facing two top-five scoring defenses over the next two weeks, he doesn’t figure to turn things around very soon.   

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QB Jeff Garcia (Tampa Bay) – The Bucs are using the same formula that led them to a Super Bowl title five years ago – play stifling defense and don’t take many chances on offense.  As a result, Garcia has thrown for less than 197 yards in five of his last eight games, and for the season, he has yet to throw for more than two scores in a game.  The quarterback’s remaining schedule is favorable, but his matchup vs. New Orleans in Week 13 is the only one that will likely lead to him producing good numbers.  

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RB Frank Gore (San Francisco) – Even though his remaining schedule is relatively favorable, it’s not looking good for Gore.  He’s playing on a sore ankle, and he is not getting much support from the rest of the Niners’ offense.  The third-year back has yet to rush for more than 100 yards this season, and he hasn’t scored since Week 2.  Also, he is averaging 4.1 yards per carry, which is 1.3 yards less than last season. 

BEAR MARKET

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QB Rex Grossman (Chicago) – Grossman had a solid day in Seattle, completing 65 percent of his passes for 266 yards.  He didn’t throw for any scores, but he also didn’t throw any picks.  Based on the comments coming out of Chicago, it appears that Grossman will keep the starting job as long as he continues to play well, and based on the Bears’ schedule, he could get on a roll.  This week, they face a Denver defense that has been struggling to stop the pass lately, and four of their other five remaining games will be against clubs that rank 18th or worse against the pass.  

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RB Ricky Williams (Miami) – The last thing that the Dolphins want is a winless season, and if winning means relying on the mercurial Williams, they won’t hesitate to do it.  Current starter Jessie Chatman has done a solid job, but he isn’t in Williams’ class in terms of raw talent.  I don’t expect Williams to see much action against the Steelers on Monday night, but after that, he could do significant damage in the five remaining games, three of which will be against defenses that rank 20th or worse against the run.   

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WR Jerry Porter (Oakland) – Porter is coming off a 5-catch, 88-yard performance against the Vikings, and he’s probably available in many leagues.  It appears that QB Daunte Culpepper will get at least a few more starts before we see rookie JaMarcus Russell, which is probably a good thing for Porter.  More importantly, the Raiders’ remaining six games include a game against the aforementioned struggling Denver pass defense and four other opponents that rank 18th or worse against the pass.   

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RB Andre Hall (Denver) – On Monday night, Hall proved what we already knew – the Broncos could hand off to Stephen Hawking 15 times, and he would likely gain 75 yards and score a touchdown.  Hall is the latest in a long line of no-name Denver running backs to succeed.  Against the Titans, he replaced an injured Selvin Young and ran for 89 yards and a TD on just seven carries.  Young didn’t appear to be seriously injured, but you never know how Coach Mike Shanahan will utilize his running backs.   

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QB Brodie Croyle (Kansas City) – Croyle did not produce impressive stats in his first NFL start, but he showed a lot of promise against the Colts, who rank second in the league against the pass.  He has a much stronger arm than former starter Damon Huard, and he should benefit from a favorable remaining schedule.  Five of the Chiefs’ last six opponents rank 17th or worse in total defense.  

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WR Justin Gage (Tennessee) – QB Vince Young is progressing nicely as a passer, and Gage has been one of his more reliable targets lately, catching 13 balls for 156 yards and one score in the past two games. 

IDP ALERT

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LB Ray Lewis (Baltimore) – We keep hearing that he’s lost a step or two, but his production is not on the decline.  Lewis has averaged 11.2 tackles in his past five games, and last week, he returned a pick for a score.  

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LB Terrell Suggs (Baltimore) – Suggs has recorded a sack in four of his past five games, and over that span, he has made 36 tackles.   

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LB DeMarcus Ware (Dallas) – Ware has been on a tear, racking up 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks in his past three games.   

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DB Sean Jones (Cleveland) – Jones may be a member of Cleveland’s much-maligned secondary, but that hasn’t prevented him from posting solid stats.  In the past three games, the fourth-year safety has recorded 22 tackles and intercepted two passes.   

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DL Michael Strahan (NY Giants) – The old man has started to heat up, posting 11 tackles and four sacks in the past two games. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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QB Philip Rivers (San Diego) – Besides Head Coach Norv Turner, I think that the Chargers’ next biggest problem is Rivers, who is looking more and more like Ryan Leaf.  Needless to say, I am not impressed by his 300-yard performance against the Jaguars, who lost their best linebacker and their best cornerback during last week’s contest.  With four of Rivers’ last six games being against defenses that rank 12th or better against the pass, I wouldn’t count on many more big games from the San Diego quarterback. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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WR Jerricho Cotchery (NY Jets) – Cotchery has been a disappointment so far in scoring-only leagues (only one TD), but until last week, he had been solid in the reception and yardage departments.  His one-catch performance against the Steelers broke his streak of 14 straight games with at least four receptions.  With Laveranues Coles (ankle) likely to miss a couple of games, look for Cotchery to get back on track and even visit the end zone a few times. 

A FINAL THOUGHT 

I hope that you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving.   

If you’re a Cowboys’ fan, you have to be thankful that WR Terrell Owens has been nothing but a good teammate this season.  He has done all of the right things, on and off the field.  In his conversations with the media, he has given credit to his teammates and coaches, as opposed to talking about himself.  His post-touchdown celebrations have been tame and in good taste.  He has not gone out of his way to draw attention to himself, and he has not been critical of teammates and coaches.  Most surprisingly of all, he seems to be happy for the first time in his career.   

I have been highly critical of Owens in the past, calling him an attention-seeking narcissist.  This season, however, I cannot say that – he has been a good soldier.  I am happy for him.  I hope that he’s matured and is as happy as he looks on the field.   

Stay the course, TO.       

 

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