2004 Expert Poll

2004 Expert Poll

by Richard Harris

July 21, 2004

For the third consecutive year, we invited some of the leading fantasy football analysts in the country to rank the top players at each position and compete against each other for the title of 2004 FFEx Expert Poll Champion. In all, 13 experts (12 guests plus myself) ranked 10 quarterbacks, 15 running backs, 15 wide receivers, 10 tight ends, 10 kickers, and 10 team defenses/special teams from best to worst for an overall-performance scoring system.

To calculate an overall ranking, we weighted each selection. The weight equaled the total number of players ranked at the position plus one, minus the player’s rank given by the expert. For example, if an expert ranked Peyton Manning as the No. 2 QB, Manning’s weight would be 9 (10+1-2), and if a participant ranked Marvin Harrison as the No. 4 WR, Harrison’s weight would equal 12 (15+1-4). The sum of the weights for each player determined his overall ranking, and ties were decided by who scored more fantasy points last season.

At the end of the season, FFEx will tally and post the results of the poll. Each expert’s score will be equal to each ranked player’s fantasy points for the season multiplied by the weight that was assigned to that player by the expert. For example, if Manning racks up 300 fantasy points this season, the expert who ranked Manning No. 2 (weight of 9) will earn 2,700 points from the Colts QB.

FFEx would like to thank all the experts who participated. Their selections have been listed in this order: T.C. Cannon of YouthFantasyFootball.com, William Del Pilar of KFFL.com, Skip Gibson of 110football.com, Brad Haines of FantasyFootballExperts.com, Richard Harris of FantasyFootballExperts.com, Greg Kellogg of FantasyAsylum.com, Mike Krueger (last year’s poll champion) of FFToday.com, Marc Lawrence of PlayBook.com, Matt Pitzer of USAToday.com, Brian Schneider of FantasyOnlineSports.com, Tommy Stephens of FantasyFootballEdge.net, Hadar Susskind of GridironGrumblings.com, and Carl Weatherford of CoachBox.com. You can read more about our distinguished panel at the end of the poll results.

QUARTERBACKS

There were no real surprises among the top 10 at quarterback. Daunte Culpepper, the leading point producer at the position for the last two seasons, edged out Peyton Manning for first place. Culpepper was ranked no worse than second on any ballot, while Manning was ranked first or second by all but one expert. The only other QB to receive a first-place vote was Michael Vick, who finished third overall. The top five was rounded out by Donovan McNabb (4^th) and Matt Hasselbeck (5^th), both of whom finished comfortably ahead of last year’s co-MVP, Steve McNair (6^th).

The general consensus was that Marc Bulger, Trent Green, and Aaron Brooks were all top-10 QBs, and they ranked seventh, eighth, and ninth, respectively. However, there was some disagreement over who should round out the top 10, an honor that went to Brett Favre, the NFL leader for TD passes in 2003 with 32.

The boldest prediction came from Schneider, who ranked Arizona first-year starter Josh McCown tenth. McCown has the mobility to rack up the points on the ground, but his inexperience, combined with a young receiving corps and a poor running game, make him a big risk.

Rnk	Name	Tm	TC	WD	SG	BH	RH	GK	MK	ML	MP	BS	TS	HS	CW	Pts
1	Daunte Culpepper	Min	1	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	126
2	Peyton Manning	Ind	2	2	4	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	118
3	Michael Vick	Atl	5	3	1	3	4		7	3	3	5	5	3	6	84
4	Donovan McNabb	Phi	3	5	3	4	3	7		4	7	4	4	6	8	74
5	Matt Hasselbeck	Sea	6	8	8	5	6	3	8	6	6	6	3	4	3	71
6	Steve McNair	Ten	7	9	6	10	5	4	5	5	8	9	8	8	9	50
7	Marc Bulger	StL	4	10	9	8	8		3	9	5	7	7	10	4	48
8	Trent Green	KC		4	7	7	9	5	9	8	10	3	9	9	5	47
9	Aaron Brooks	NO	10	7	5	9	7	8	4				10	7	7	36
10	Brett Favre	GB						9		7	4		6		10	19
11	Chad Pennington	NYJ	8			6				10		8		5		18
12	Tom Brady	NE	9				10		6		9					10
13	Jeff Garcia	Cle		6				10	10							7
14	Jake Plummer	Den						6								5
15	Josh McCown	Ari										10				1
16	Mark Brunell	Was			10											1

RUNNING BACKS

The top-10 at running back featured all familiar names. Only three backs received first-place votes – Priest Holmes (9), LaDainian Tomlinson (3), and Clinton Portis (1). Holmes, who has produced 51 touchdowns over the past two seasons, finished comfortably ahead of Tomlinson for first-place, while Portis (5^th) trailed Ahman Green (3^rd) and Deuce McAlister (4^th) in the overall voting. Jamal Lewis, who led the NFL in rushing in 2003 with 2,066 yards, finished a disappointing seventh, behind Shaun Alexander. The experts are likely concerned that Lewis’ legal troubles could affect his playing time this season.

A few new faces managed to finish in the top 15. Now the unquestioned No. 1 backs on their teams, the experts predict that San Francisco’s Kevan Barlow (11^th) and Houston’s Domanick Davis (12^th) will have breakout seasons. Both youngsters finished comfortably ahead of former fantasy football king Marshall Faulk, whose stock has dropped because of age, injuries, and the presence of rookie Steven Jackson.

The boldest pick at running back came from Kellogg, who ranked Lee Suggs at No. 7. Suggs, who received no other votes, is not a lock to beat out William Green for the starting tailback job in Cleveland.

Rnk	Name	Tm	TC	WD	SG	BH	RH	GK	MK	ML	MP	BS	TS	HS	CW	Pts
1	Priest Holmes	KC	1	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	1	3	1	2	1	190
2	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	3	3	1	2	2	8	2	2	3	1	2	1	2	176
3	Ahman Green	GB	4	2	3	6	3	4	4	4	2	2	3	4	3	164
4	Deuce McAllister	NO	2	4	7	7	6	3	3	3	8	4	5