It should come as a surprise to no one that St. Louis lost again last week.  The Seahawks didn’t look like the Super Bowl team they were a few years back, but they did enough to beat the lowly Rams. 

We expect neither Shaun Alexander nor Stephen Jackson—on a going forward basis—to justify their first-round draft status.  In the case of Jackson, we place the blame squarely on that team’s situation, with emphasis on their ridiculous CQ+.  In the case of Alexander, we suggest that his deteriorating skills (or faltering work ethic) contribute at least as much to his disappointing results as does his team’s situation.   

This week, we’re changing gears a bit—but still digging up data for the CQ+.  As opposed to reviewing two teams playing against one another, we’ll focus on two teams in completely different situations with two of the top running backs in most fantasy scoring systems season-to-date:  the Chargers and Dolphins. 

We wanted to hold off on Miami for a while to see if the incredible anomaly, Ronnie Brown, could continue his amazing out-of-place performance.  You see, his team is just bad.  They are bad in the U.S., and they will be bad in the U.K.  Bad, bad, bad.  However, Ronnie Brown has been a pinball wizard with respect to production (NFL and fantasy).  Mr. Brown’s very saddening injury last Sunday has essentially forced our hands.  So we decided—in somewhat of a tribute fashion—to review his team’s offense this week. 

Don’t forget about that big-time trade a couple of weeks ago.  When the Dolphins gave Chris Chambers to the Chargers for a 2008 second-round draft pick, it gave the appearance that Miami was focusing on the future, while the Chargers are working for today (which is why we think it was a great trade).  With that link in mind, we’ll also focus on San Diego’s offense.   

Beginning the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Dolphins: 56 

Beginning the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Chargers:  95 

Both teams saw some major shake-ups on the coaching staffs after 2006, but the Chargers were able to keep the team fairly intact from last year’s 14-2 juggernaut.   

Through Week 7 of the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Dolphins:  74 

Through Week 7 of the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Chargers:  99 

While fairly weak, the Dolphins CQ is really a split personality.  Carey and Hadnot are both in their fourth year and have spent their whole careers in Miami—offering a solid foundation.  Shelton is a nice complement, in his ninth year and playing on this third team.  But then you’ve got two newcomers, the wily veteran Liwienski (10^th year and on his third team), and the rookie center Satele, who strip away all the continuity that the first three guys bring to the table. 

The Chargers, on the other hand, offer a model of a CQ+.  McNeill (2^nd year), Dielman (5^th year), Hardwick (4^th year) and Olivea (4^th year) have all played for one team in the NFL.  While Goff (10^th year) has only played for two teams, and this is his fourth year in San Diego.  Last week, we used the pitiful Rams’ O-line to demonstrate a flaw in our CQ+.  This week, we offer props to the Chargers for keeping such an impressive group together so long (in similar fashion to the Patriots, we might add). 

Here are some offensive rankings regarding these two teams: 

Aside from sacks allowed, these rankings look extremely similar.  Yet most people would now place the Chargers as a top five team in the loaded AFC, and the Dolphins (even before Brown’s injury and the Chambers trade) have been viewed as one of the worst in the NFL. 

We think the Chargers’ numbers are understated because of their weak passing game.  CQ+ aside, if defenses can consistently put eight men in the box, LaDainian Tomlinson can only do so much.  And while LT has been impressive these last few games, his season has been “ok” so far.  We blame these not-so-impressive offensive rankings squarely on the quarterback failing to throw successfully to anyone not named Gates (of the Chargers eight TD passes, only three have gone to true wide receivers). 

We think the Dolphins’ numbers are overstated for two reasons.  First, they’ve been granted plenty of cosmetic production due to games in which a) they played against weak defenses; and/or b) their opponents played prevent defense in the 2^nd half (most obviously against the Pats).  Second, Brown has been incredible.  Through the not-quite seven games in which he played, he ranks ninth in rushing yards per game, 11^th in yards per carry (minimum of 35 carries), and first among RB in receptions and receiving yards.  We’ll let the Sage of New England, Bill Belichick, summarize our point, “Ronnie Brown is the best offensive player that we have seen all year.” 

We wonder what Brown would do with a real team around him.  Hopefully, we’ll find out next year.  Godspeed, Mr. Brown.   

Our predictions:

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