All eyes are on Tom Brady and Peyton Manning this Sunday.  We executed our first focus on CQ+ in Week 6, when it was the undefeated Cowboys hosting the “hey, these guys are playing unfair” Patriots.  We’ve already covered New England, and the reader is welcome to review that article. 

We will spend some time looking at Indy in this article.  And following last week’s format, we’ll review another team that is linked to them.  You may remember a game played in February this year, when Indy beat up on the NFC Champion Bears.  While the Colts’ 7-0 start isn’t really a surprise, the Bears’ ignominious fall from grace has many in Chicago in not such a Lovie mood. 

Before the season began, many expert analysts rated the NFC North as one of the worst divisions in football—Chicago’s high expectations notwithstanding.  (We are compelled to point out that we Davises don’t fit into that group of expert analysts.  Don’t get us wrong, as analysts, we also thought the Bears would easily win a weak division.  It’s the “expert” part that excludes us.)  But after eight games, the Bears are 3-5 and have just been swept by the Lions.  We think that last part bears repeating:  They’ve just been swept by the Lions!  (That’s a tough thing to be thinking about when you wake up Monday morning.)                        

The Bears now find themselves in third place (a half a game out of last place) in a division that most would call even weaker than expected.  Last year, the Bears were undefeated through seven games, then lost a shocker to the Dolphins.  In that first loss of the 2006 season, Rex Grossman and Co. turned the ball over six times (three interceptions and three fumbles).   

These two Super Bowl teams now find themselves in very different positions. 

Beginning the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Colts:  66 

Beginning the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Bears:  97 

This is NOT what we expected to see.  Keep in mind that the rookie Tony Ugoh got hurt in Week 7—and missed last week’s start.  We think that he’ll play this week, but he may not.  If he doesn’t, we wouldn’t bet on the Colts.  In fact, even if he does, we wouldn’t bet on the Colts. 

Through Week 8 of the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Colts:  77 

Through Week 8 of the ’07 season, here is the CQ+ for the Bears:  97 

Let’s focus on the Colts first.  It has seemed that their offense has been “a bit” less than previous years.  Ugoh was a highly touted draft pick, so maybe he can fit right in.  But we have concerns about this team’s continuity.  Fortunately for them, they have an All-World QB in Manning who doesn’t need as much time as most QBs in the league.  And one would have a hard time finding a more productive WR/TE corps than Harrison/Wayne/Clark.  In addition, as opposed to that atrocious defense (especially with respect to rushing) from last year, they have a solid foothold on that side of the ball.  Perhaps most importantly, even though the continuity quotient for the Colts’ offensive line isn’t sky-high, the continuity quotient for the team as a whole is staggering—as only 4 of players on Indianapolis’ 53-man roster have ever played for another team!  For these reasons, we understand quite easily how this team has been so impressive.  But we don’t think that they’ll have enough to pull it out this week. 

Here are some offensive rankings regarding these two teams: 

Before leaving the Colts, we point out their rushing offense is actually more highly ranked than their vaunted pass offense.  Note that the Colts are first in the NFL with 12 rushing TDs, while the Bears are 27^th with only two.  And while neither team impresses with the big run, the Bears have not had a single rushing play over 20 yards all season.  In fact, taken as a group, the offensive rankings offered above are just…well…offensive.  There are reasons, some obvious, some not so obvious. 

OBVIOUS REASON #1:

The Bears, historically, have not been an offensive powerhouse.  They have focused their salary-cap monies on the defensive side of the ball.  Even on their way to the Super Bowl in 2006, their rankings on the offense were adequate at best:  

With that being said, we have to acknowledge how unfortunate the Bears have been in 2007 with injuries to a number of guys on defense.  That has certainly had an adverse effect on the offense. 

OBVIOUS REASON #2:

Grossman is not a very good quarterback. 

Yes, we realize that Grossman was the QB during all of 2006.  But it is our opinion that no one had told him about his deficiencies until well into last year’s season.

OBVIOUS REASON #3:

Brian Griese is not a very good quarterback. 

Hey, we like to drink a few on the weekends, too.  We have no problem with his personal habits.  But he’s still not a good QB. 

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS REASON #1:

Cedric Benson is not a very good running back. 

While he maintained a decent 4.1 yards per carry average last year, we just didn’t buy it.  He only carried the ball 157 times, which is not a very big sample.  This year, he’s carried the ball 149 times and maintains a 3.1 yard per carry average.  Really, Thomas Jones has been underrated all his career, and he was especially so last year. 

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS REASON #2:

The Bears have turned the ball over this year like nobody’s business.  Remember their first loss last year in which they turned the ball over six times.  In the first seven games, they only had seven interceptions and four fumbles (again, as of that point, no one had really broken the news to Grossman:  “Son, you’re no good.”)  Even including that Miami game, that only totals 17 turnovers.  Through eight games this season, they have 31 total turnovers (22 interceptions and nine fumbles). 

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