2004 Fearless Forecast

AFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

New England

1

12

0

NY Jets

2

0

3

Buffalo

3

0

2

Miami

4

0

0

AFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Baltimore

1

9

3

Pittsburgh

2

2

2

Cincinnati

3

1

1

Cleveland

4

0

0

AFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Indianapolis

1

8

0

Tennessee

2 (WC)

4

7

Jacksonville

3

0

2

Houston

4

0

0

AFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Kansas City

1

10

1

Denver

2 (WC)

2

3

Oakland

3

0

0

San Diego

4

0

0

NFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Philadelphia

1

12

0

Washington

2

0

3

Dallas

3

0

3

NY Giants

4

0

0

NFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Minnesota

1

9

2

Green Bay

2 (WC)

3

7

Detroit

3

0

0

Chicago

4

0

0

NFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Carolina

1

7

0

New Orleans

2 (WC)

4

2

Tampa Bay

3

0

3

Atlanta

4

1

0

NFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Seattle

1

12

0

St. Louis

2

0

4

San Francisco (tie)

3

0

0

Arizona (tie)

3

0

0

1

Who will win the AFC Championship?

Indianapolis – It was offense prevailing over defense as the Colts (four votes) narrowly edged the Patriots and Ravens (three apiece) to grab the AFC spot. Pittsburgh and Kansas City received one vote each. Schneider thinks this is the year that Manning will finally get his first title. The Colts’ explosive offense will certainly be a force this season, though some think their defense is somewhat suspect. Harris contended that the Patriots “have no major flaws on paper” and will win as long as Tom Brady remains on the field. I think the Ravens have spent the last three years retooling to make a serious run at the title this year, and they will get it.

2

Who will win the NFC Championship?

Seattle – The Seahawks’ balance coupled with head coach Mike Holmgren’s experience got them five votes here. They won out easily over Philadelphia (three), Green Bay (two), and Minnesota (two). Kellogg thinks the Seahawks are “primed” to make a run this season, while Puryear was less pro-Seattle than he was anti-Philadelphia in saying: “The Eagles will gag in the NFC title game yet again.” It will be a close race no doubt. Even Schneider, a Philly-picker here, said he believes Seattle will run a “close second” to the Eagles in the NFC.

3

Who will win the Super Bowl?

Indianapolis – Again, it was the Colts (four votes) over the Patriots and Ravens (three apiece, again) in a close Super Bowl vote. Interestingly, Seattle, which received more votes for their conference title than any other team, did not receive one Super Bowl vote. Davis, Cannon, Overmyer, and Schneider all were high on the Colts’ offensive firepower, ignoring the “defense wins championships” mantra that is so often tossed around. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia each received one vote. Said Haines, who picked the Eagles over the Chiefs: “It’s finally their year.”

4

What team do you expect to surprise the most (in a positive way)? 

Pittsburgh – The Steelers (three votes) won a very close race here, edging the Bills (two) and Jaguars (1.5). Kellogg, who thinks the Steelers will surprise all the way to the Super Bowl, said, “The addition of Staley and the resurgence of Burress will surprise most pundits.” I think the Jaguars will build on last year’s strong finish, with QB Byron Leftwich emerging as a top young passer. I should also note that, when I picked Atlanta to finish first in the NFC South, I did not think it would be such a surprise choice. Therefore, I will throw the Falcons in here and say that I think they will play enough defense to allow Vick (who I think will be very good if healthy this year) to do some impressive things in his new offense. Others receiving votes: Jets, Redskins, Saints, Vikings, Bengals, and Texans.

5

What team do you think will be the most disappointing?

Atlanta – The Falcons and Rams went toe-to-toe here, with the Falcons picking up four votes to the Rams’ three (no other team received more than one). Said Harris of the Falcons: “They are way overrated. The offense is still a work in progress and the defense is still bad.” Meanwhile, Puryear felt the Rams were the bust waiting to happen. He said that they “may not lose at home…may not win on the road, either. Defense has serious holes up front and offense isn’t getting any younger.” Others receiving votes: Packers, Giants, Panthers, Broncos, and Buccaneers.

6

Which team will have the most potent offense (yards and points)?

Minnesota – This was a four-horse race, and the Vikings won by a Moss. Bad joke, I know. In reality, they garnered five votes to beat out the Colts (three), Chiefs (two), and Seahawks (two). I believe that the Culpepper-to-Moss connection along with the team’s many capable running backs and solid line make this unit tops in the league. Puryear agreed and took it a step further, saying that the NFL’s new rules to cut down on defensive holding of receivers will “spell a career for Moss.” Overmyer, however, liked the Colts to amass the best offensive stats behind the man he thinks will be the league’s MVP, Peyton Manning.

7

Which team will have the most dominating defense (yards, points, sacks, takeaways)?

Baltimore – The only landslide winner of the entire survey, the Ravens’ defense could be as good as or better than they were during the Super Bowl run in 2000. Schneider called this choice “a no-brainer.” Haines said the Ravens were “clearly the best unit in the NFL.” Personally, I think this unit is so good it is scary. Unfortunately, the addition of Deion Sanders makes them annoying, too.

8

Who will be the offensive MVP?

Randy Moss/Daunte Culpepper (tie) – It is no coincidence that these teammates split the MVP votes with three each. They make each other better. Said Puryear of Moss: “Anything less than 20 touchdowns would be a disappointment.” That would also mean great things for Culpepper, who got votes from Cannon, Schneider, and Playstead. The only other player to receive more than one vote was Peyton Manning (two), who was the choice of Harris and Overmyer. Others receiving votes (one each): Shaun Alexander, Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, and Priest Holmes.

9

Who will be the defensive MVP?

Ray Lewis – In following with the Ravens’ landslide win as the dominant defense, Lewis garnered 11 of the 12 votes here. Kellogg called Lewis “a machine on the field.” Lewis is the game’s best defensive player and should dominate providing he avoids the “Madden Curse,” where the player on the cover of EA Sports’ Madden football game often gets injured (Vick was on the cover of Madden 2004, preceded by Faulk and Culpepper. They all missed significant time in their cover year). The other vote in this category went to Patriots’ CB Ty Law, who was the choice of Pitzer.

10

Who will be the Rookie of the Year?      

Kevin Jones – For the second year in a row, a Detroit Lion grabbed this category. Last season, WR Charles Rogers was the choice, and would have been a good one had he not gotten injured. This year it is Virginia Tech product Jones, who will start from Day One. Jones tallied 6.5 votes (Haines voted for one ROY on offense and defense so I split his vote in half), easily defeating Sean Taylor (1.5), Roy Williams (one), Ben Rothlisberger (one), and Larry Fitzgerald (one). Harris chose Jones, though he said Taylor was a tempting choice. Puryear said he believes that Jones “will make the Cowboys regret passing him up on draft day” and Kellogg thinks Jones will “bring the roar back to the Lions.”

11

Which player will be the biggest surprise (in a positive way)?

Duce Staley – Pitzer and Cannon gave Staley (two votes) the narrowest of victories here over Chris Brown (1.5 votes – I split between Brown and Leftwich) in a category that had many names mentioned. Staley will be out to prove the Eagles made a mistake letting him go, while Brown “will fill in nicely” in Tennessee according to Overmyer. Haines thinks Terrell Owens (one vote) will be a positive surprise because “Owens will be a nice guy and say only nice things all season.” One interesting name was Chiefs’ WR Dante Hall (one). Kellogg gave him a vote and said, “…this little guy has moves reminiscent of Eric Metcalf and Barry Sanders. Plus, he CAN catch.” Others receiving votes: Willis McGahee, Donte' Stallworth, Edgerrin James, Lee Suggs, Thomas Jones (all received one vote), and Byron Leftwich (0.5 vote).

12

Which player will be the biggest disappointment?

Michael Vick – For the second straight year, Vick drew the most votes in this category with three. He is suddenly viewed as an all-or-nothing player and most people believe that he will be closer to the latter this season in Atlanta’s West Coast offense. Haines may have summed up this overriding view on Vick simply by saying “Vick won’t keep the Falcons from being a bad team.” Kevan Barlow was right behind Vick with two votes. I believe that he will struggle mightily on a San Francisco team with such limited offense around him. Others receiving votes (one each): Brad Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson, Marshall Faulk, Byron Leftwich, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, and Kurt Warner.